La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d62daf905d6456b42c6300afb3b1bf40e13281bfe41a5134aa407d68c5ceb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa89…e99fbacked Yes | 26c | 3,846$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 74c | 3,735$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.05 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,209$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 26c | 927.58$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.17 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 72c | 690.34$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.03 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x421d…320abacked No | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 595$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 34c | 428$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.52 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 271$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.46 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…35e6backed No | 74c | 209.46$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 25c | 203$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 295 | 45.4%134 W · 161 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…f067backed Yes | 27c | 198.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…9834backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 29c | 140.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c7…e539backed Yes | 26c | 115.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 32c | 111.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…9fecbacked Yes | 23c | 109.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 104.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…502cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc8…1a55backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e40…e093backed Yes | 28c | 83.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…2bc1backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…307bbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b2…16bcbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695a…d3d6backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5384backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd613…7ae3backed No | 74c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d2…4fd1backed No | 74c | 37.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…d632backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef3…acdfbacked No | 75c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Betis vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-19?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-09-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.