CS2 · resolved market
Valorant: XLG vs SEN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7bb32bf1929fcec24b98a74f63996feeb0a38dce4b9e44ce94ce45e07c5e8e3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- XLGof XLG, SEN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked XLG | 29c | 1,961$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.05 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed SEN | 71c | 1,933$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.53 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked XLG | 25c | 1,694$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.01 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…549ebacked SEN | 76c | 1,315$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked SEN | 73c | 1,000$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.62 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed SEN | 58c | 723.11$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.84 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed XLG | 47c | 575.59$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…0151backed XLG | 28c | 541.43$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.19 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3c…a6a3backed XLG | 30c | 500.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked SEN | 53c | 500$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked SEN | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 817 | 51.7%422 W · 395 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked XLG | 57c | 450$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 220 | 56.4%124 W · 96 L | +19.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed SEN | 78c | 390$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.9 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…45eabacked XLG | 29c | 348.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.69 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed SEN | 69c | 288.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed XLG | 23c | 230$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.7 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed XLG | 23c | 223.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.15 | 387 | 39.5%153 W · 234 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed XLG | 13c | 183.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53dc…33aabacked SEN | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…af9cbacked SEN | 76c | 132.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked XLG | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked SEN | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…d352backed XLG | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +186.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed XLG | 61c | 69.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9235…3fbdbacked SEN | 73c | 65.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 71cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked XLG | 77c | 58.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed XLG | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…f629backed XLG | 28c | 44.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…235fbacked XLG | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.