TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Trump approval >40% on June 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$163,658
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,658 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x80da…4f6dbacked No8c16,620$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.6919436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c11,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2069…c7cfbacked No1c6,389$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452941.4%12 W · 17 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+115.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccdc…567bbacked No2c4,649$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.12329.4%3 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No16c3,632$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.453754.1%20 W · 17 L+6.1wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+55%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf501…8852backed No27c3,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8201323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-68.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes80c2,622$2,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.239958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2e…95ecbacked No2c2,328$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ded…9025backed No4c2,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.68839.8%35 W · 53 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+141.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No20c1,969$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.246131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ae…9b16backed No13c1,882$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.411729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61d8…9c51backed No5c1,560$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.482010%2 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d64…94a4backed No1c1,505$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes77c1,302$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.642231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed No15c1,216$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.555328.3%15 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No18c1,171$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0914125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No2c1,149$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.712400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec1b…c92fbacked No8c1,114$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.122524%6 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid+34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes76c1,034$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.0518745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203732.4%12 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x007f…cd86backed No10c934.75$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf241…a9a8backed No28c781.9$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No16c773.65$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5324035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No3c770$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.513989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x580b…7b49backed No4c730$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1d…c011backed No3c699.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No22c699.1$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.724858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No18c659.82$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.0519435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…6110backed No7c580$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43f8…2903backed No4c580$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Yes77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1152060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No16c499.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8011031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa78f…185ebacked No4c443.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab47…298fbacked No15c420$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb782…955cbacked No13c400$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f8…dd0cbacked Yes80c380$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+39.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ee4…8338backed No14c378.64$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No6c359.69$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No22c352.55$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5417…0204backed No4c341.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No12c309.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.53745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ce…632fbacked No33c307.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2415227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed No12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365341.5%22 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x711e…487bbacked No5c297.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f35…7438backed No8c250.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x284c…57e0backed No16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f37…ff24backed No33c242.42$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…71eebacked No9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf09c…383dbacked Yes70c214.29$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.29475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40f2…bd77backed No24c212.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No14c204.46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbf…2bdebacked No10c200.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214055%22 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3215332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No32c195$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.412736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x0f04…eca5backed No16c188.24$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked No32c182.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.274845.8%22 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…3c8abacked No17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes80c147.54$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5114230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75b9…f7a6backed No16c140$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdadd…9d14backed No30c134.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8803…8ddfbacked Yes78c127.78$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.36572.3%47 W · 18 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+20.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xada8…8650backed No17c121.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3e…d8d0backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes69c116.12$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5326…f3efbacked No22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251250%6 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No10c113.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.371,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09ae…004ebacked No14c113.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.861414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…8f91backed No14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+55.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd46a…a9c6backed No21c100.95$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2c7…1b5bbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b90…a0c7backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+61.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba2…099cbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee8…57b4backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a28…c1c0backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes71c99.27$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.174774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.4wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe483…b5a0backed No20c98.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No15c96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2aac…dfadbacked No27c91.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed No30c85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.153020%6 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc51a…704cbacked No31c73.23$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d67…4e16backed No15c70$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+72.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa14d…48bcbacked No30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa63a…6b70backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7f…2491backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe98…0befbacked No18c61.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed No17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x87cd…6f2abacked Yes72c52$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.446058.3%35 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No22c51.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.534914.3%7 W · 42 L-6.7wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-54.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed Yes71c42.04$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.041258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed Yes71c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.15666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab75…738fbacked Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc24…e86fbacked Yes72c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.