NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 219.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59e389e481642dc94cc9d887978c206e8d3df811de20b6a471f886f5146c8e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Over | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,720 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Under | 53c | 2,928$1,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,551.66 | 299 | 57.2%171 W · 128 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Under | 48c | 1,958$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.84 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb142…cd11backed Under | 39c | 1,866$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.08 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Over | 72c | 1,472$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 686 | 42.1%289 W · 397 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Under | 66c | 1,256$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.77 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 40c | 1,049$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.21 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Under | 54c | 733.57$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.13 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 610.47$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.47 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6f…0142backed Over | 46c | 553.87$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.09 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Over | 38c | 503.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.66 | 250 | 16.8%42 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Under | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Under | 63c | 478.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…6130backed Under | 55c | 345.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.29 | 161 | 60.9%98 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 43c | 252.83$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…42f9backed Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Over | 55c | 210$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Under | 66c | 208$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.76 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Over | 34c | 208$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.76 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Under | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa273…7786backed Over | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7c…b7dbbacked Under | 65c | 127.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…5e6bbacked Over | 63c | 121$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 55c | 98.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 12c | 87.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 235 | 55.3%130 W · 105 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Over | 35c | 58.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…8f91backed Under | 65c | 58.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…3585backed Under | 70c | 55.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Under | 50c | 53.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ea…a4b6backed Over | 59c | 35.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…15b9backed Over | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Under | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 71.9%82 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…3d5bbacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Under | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 219.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Thunder won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 214.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.