NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa55fcc9c7730d0ba78e398bf9c146c1539186f93e36d3c080b2014c2dffaebe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Timberwolves | 51c | 6,397$3,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.38 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder | 49c | 4,166$2,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.57 | 304 | 43.1%131 W · 173 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 47c | 3,283$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.02 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,644$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.32 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 1,000$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.35 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Timberwolves | 52c | 950$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Thunder | 49c | 825$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.75 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Timberwolves | 30c | 660.63$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.19 | 250 | 16.8%42 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe528…1511backed Timberwolves | 63c | 559.37$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 67c | 383.3$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.65 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Thunder | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Timberwolves | 34c | 299.98$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.99 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Thunder | 61c | 283.88$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.71 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Thunder | 48c | 230$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…4341backed Thunder | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Thunder | 37c | 196.68$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Thunder | 48c | 187$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Thunder | 67c | 143.89$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Thunder | 48c | 93.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…15b9backed Thunder | 53c | 71.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Thunder | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 164 | 36.6%60 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…31f9backed Timberwolves | 61c | 35.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Timberwolves | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…9a72backed Timberwolves | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Thunder won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 214.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.