NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff7323a31e64e42b02fe5c0d31cce70cfe828f6129b0586c27221e0308a269b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Timberwolves | 48c | 2,100$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.36 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Timberwolves | 53c | 1,212$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Thunder | 52c | 1,049$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.56 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.2wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Thunder | 47c | 740.33$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.37 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Thunder | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Thunder | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Timberwolves | 3c | 383.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Timberwolves | 50c | 345$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 367 | 47.7%175 W · 192 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 208.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8338…8be1backed Timberwolves | 9c | 202.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Thunder | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Thunder | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…a622backed Thunder | 51c | 194.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 48c | 165.75$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Timberwolves | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Thunder | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.02 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 78.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Thunder | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Timberwolves | 35c | 58.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Timberwolves | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca2…55e4backed Thunder | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…3373backed Timberwolves | 50c | 45.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Thunder | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Timberwolves | 48c | 39.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder | 51c | 29.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 181 | 46.4%84 W · 97 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 52c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Thunder won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 214.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.