TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Timberwolves, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,383,147
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,266,891

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,383,147 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 685 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed63…9d75backed Timberwolves0c614,960$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Thunder72c213,727$154,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,226.463764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+25.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Timberwolves26c196,457$51,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,546.628341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Timberwolves26c106,696$27,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,74114434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf980…6528backed Thunder73c101,430$74,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,143.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Timberwolves18c78,282$14,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,090.7822457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Timberwolves26c73,129$19,145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,144.9896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Timberwolves13c64,508$8,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,228.5613636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e11…9bacbacked Timberwolves28c63,485$17,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,775.892138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Timberwolves28c57,173$16,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,00023342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Thunder73c41,769$30,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,244.264654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Thunder72c39,075$28,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,84846426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Timberwolves27c33,909$9,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,155.4535235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Thunder74c30,642$22,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,973.218146.4%84 W · 97 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Thunder72c29,000$20,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,069.891,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Timberwolves27c26,000$7,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,02047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa67…0ef4backed Timberwolves0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258016.3%13 W · 67 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Timberwolves19c25,000$4,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,749.997335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Timberwolves2c24,932$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.210926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Timberwolves23c24,800$5,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7048333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Timberwolves25c20,188$5,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,078.137734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Thunder74c20,000$14,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,2002343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Timberwolves15c19,926$3,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,046.195942.4%25 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid0%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Timberwolves16c19,810$3,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,252.1426431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf704…7ddbbacked Timberwolves26c19,477$5,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,064.08714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-55.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Thunder73c18,093$13,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,88520047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc8…e458backed Timberwolves3c16,663$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.638634.9%30 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Timberwolves5c16,525$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.7116537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fc0…53ddbacked Timberwolves28c15,871$4,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4445457.4%31 W · 23 L+13.2wins+0.24per pick33cpaid+76.8%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x20e2…667fbacked Thunder74c15,500$11,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0304032.5%13 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Timberwolves26c15,500$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Timberwolves5c15,000$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.572714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Timberwolves25c14,822$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,750.037261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x00be…5acabacked Thunder74c14,091$10,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,686.431258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder75c13,749$10,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,425.113,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac63…7afcbacked Timberwolves1c12,641$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.581127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Thunder73c12,325$8,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,327.773644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Timberwolves6c11,363$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67038027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0662…5511backed Thunder74c11,096$8,211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,885.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Timberwolves6c11,094$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.6919419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder77c10,683$8,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,466.0513560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Timberwolves26c10,675$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder74c10,661$7,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,771.8447751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Thunder74c10,437$7,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,713.7430351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Timberwolves27c10,421$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,850.291,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Timberwolves20c10,078$1,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,990.698536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Timberwolves27c10,000$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,669.9936843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x617a…07b4backed Timberwolves23c9,379$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.381631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Timberwolves26c8,909$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.2714052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Timberwolves2c8,891$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.5166732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Timberwolves3c8,832$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.557929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Thunder74c8,586$6,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,232.2419149.7%95 W · 96 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Thunder73c8,123$5,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.0688053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Timberwolves0c8,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02c2…0adabacked Timberwolves26c7,927$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.12425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Timberwolves18c7,500$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3309747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder75c7,478$5,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.1329957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Timberwolves8c7,446$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.923935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff7b…52a8backed Timberwolves8c7,391$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.296747.8%32 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5413backed Timberwolves25c7,318$1,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,817.269935.4%35 W · 64 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thunder74c6,835$5,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.9959653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb42d…3d11backed Timberwolves27c6,652$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,796.013636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Timberwolves25c6,338$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60025536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x721f…748bbacked Timberwolves2c6,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100160%0 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Timberwolves20c6,118$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.867829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8845…ae48backed Timberwolves19c6,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1401513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-66.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Timberwolves26c6,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56030826.6%82 W · 226 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Timberwolves4c5,967$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.638714.9%13 W · 74 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Thunder78c5,650$4,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.4113248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Timberwolves28c5,472$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.059849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Timberwolves6c5,462$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.1922039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce69…c81dbacked Timberwolves26c5,337$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.71250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Thunder73c5,296$3,866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.8262351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…ab4dbacked Thunder80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+252.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Timberwolves8c4,930$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.3224423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe367…f235backed Timberwolves10c4,879$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.9140%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Timberwolves27c4,702$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.5438143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked Thunder78c4,587$3,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.8714161%86 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Timberwolves25c4,491$1,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,122.8212040.8%49 W · 71 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Timberwolves21c4,142$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.983545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Thunder74c4,054$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.057445.9%34 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed Timberwolves3c4,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Thunder77c3,411$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.789450%47 W · 47 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f20…ca83backed Timberwolves28c3,354$939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Thunder75c3,321$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.5184957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Timberwolves11c3,047$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.7817943.6%78 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4ce…c3c2backed Timberwolves22c3,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670875%6 W · 2 L+3.1wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+94.9%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Timberwolves27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8108167.9%55 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.991,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb26…94ddbacked Timberwolves3c2,900$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810018%18 W · 82 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Timberwolves19c2,894$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9319535.4%69 W · 126 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5303…d66ebacked Timberwolves28c2,857$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8008921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf40…1bd2backed Timberwolves16c2,616$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.7212232%39 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder73c2,604$1,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.042,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb9…2067backed Timberwolves12c2,558$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012941.9%54 W · 75 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+38.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6a6…b6fdbacked Timberwolves2c2,404$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Timberwolves9c2,323$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3467911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Timberwolves1c2,090$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.895530.9%17 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder73c2,080$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.922,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Timberwolves2c2,036$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.