NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 214.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d593111f2a1bf581dd0fdf4771d14e5918c791f6e9ac05bd267a1f90696d54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 54c | 827.17$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.63 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 63c | 822$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.36 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…60bebacked Under | 37c | 788.11$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.6 | 250 | 16.8%42 W · 208 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29db…ae12backed Under | 46c | 470$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Under | 44c | 339.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Over | 53c | 296.46$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.3 | 122 | 32%39 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41e…2dfcbacked Under | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 208 | 47.6%99 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Over | 56c | 194.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Over | 58c | 194.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 187.5$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Under | 43c | 160.94$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Over | 56c | 135.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.56 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 43c | 128.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 43c | 125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 56c | 92.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…e358backed Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed Over | 59c | 84.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 40c | 77.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Under | 30c | 77.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1471…7926backed Over | 70c | 77.14$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Over | 58c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Under | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…7bd2backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…87a7backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…96f8backed Under | 44c | 48.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79b…0fe0backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Over | 53c | 27.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…15b9backed Over | 67c | 15.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 214.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Thunder won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs Thunder: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.