World Politics · resolved market
Will Mario Grech be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f0bc25093b13c1bbba16731bbdd8a8a9c4a4454d029ea52a2ea8f995205715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $923,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $319,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $923,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b25…191cbacked Yes | 1c | 50,365$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +303.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 47,707$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.46 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…26e8backed Yes | 2c | 32,187$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 2c | 26,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.5 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…f557backed Yes | 4c | 21,978$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 18,079$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.65 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 17,400$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,220$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9510…9d19backed Yes | 3c | 14,810$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +1,386.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…4b61backed Yes | 2c | 14,615$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 10,393$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +611.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 1c | 10,040$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd54…fc05backed Yes | 3c | 8,500$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbf…83bfbacked Yes | 2c | 8,281$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,437$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,276$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…9306backed Yes | 2c | 7,199$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…dd8fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,082$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…f71abacked Yes | 3c | 7,027$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 6,752$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 6,417$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…879cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,326$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664c…d6b0backed Yes | 2c | 6,226$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c3…bd0ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,647$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 5,563$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 2c | 5,309$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…aed1backed Yes | 1c | 4,936$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…dbf2backed Yes | 2c | 4,922$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +402%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes | 2c | 4,849$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +553%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…39b9backed Yes | 1c | 4,710$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…73dbbacked Yes | 2c | 4,638$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +1,540.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…103dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,448$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…e424backed Yes | 1c | 4,338$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +1,129.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6d…3435backed Yes | 2c | 4,298$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 4,281$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,280$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e1…84b1backed Yes | 2c | 4,061$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…7f74backed Yes | 1c | 4,040$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 2c | 3,930$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6f…60c2backed Yes | 3c | 3,588$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…8f37backed Yes | 2c | 3,478$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 0c | 3,188$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 0c | 3,122$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…4ab7backed Yes | 2c | 3,053$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…e6c1backed Yes | 1c | 3,035$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3f…59b9backed Yes | 2c | 2,958$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 2,948$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e95…d070backed Yes | 1c | 2,932$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa309…adfbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,901$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 2c | 2,799$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…5dcbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,609$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…57acbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +933.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508e…5c09backed Yes | 2c | 2,381$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,346$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 2c | 2,305$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…4694backed Yes | 2c | 2,237$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…caa8backed Yes | 2c | 2,223$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…2f67backed Yes | 3c | 2,186$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…59dfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,124$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa567…71bcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…0db1backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +816.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 1c | 2,002$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…2aefbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +574.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 2c | 1,996$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11c2…2149backed Yes | 1c | 1,982$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…8055backed Yes | 2c | 1,960$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717b…4c90backed Yes | 2c | 1,898$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…8faabacked Yes | 3c | 1,898$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 2c | 1,886$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 1,874$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 3c | 1,842$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…d7febacked Yes | 1c | 1,710$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…216fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,695$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,690$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes | 3c | 1,656$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +289%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,618$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +2,583.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Yes | 3c | 1,529$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,459$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +400.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…2f88backed Yes | 1c | 1,421$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…5349backed Yes | 2c | 1,420$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7036…6d2ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,359$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,312$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1a…5ee9backed Yes | 2c | 1,195$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…de19backed Yes | 2c | 1,177$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +886%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…8a7dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +642.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…8b4dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,044$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca02…919dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,038$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d8…1461backed Yes | 3c | 1,014$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +238.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…c3bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…d465backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a1…e0d3backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.