TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,632,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$827,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,632,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3f4a…5693backed Yes3c117,686$4,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,053.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c101,300$2,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,851.316883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes3c62,067$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.8416612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7a…3644backed Yes4c61,263$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc34a…250ebacked Yes6c31,731$1,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,795.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8f…8188backed Yes3c27,284$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes4c25,113$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf42f…5017backed Yes4c22,123$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes3c21,462$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.052711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+611.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0450…e0ddbacked Yes2c18,682$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.11110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c16,832$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.634521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1126…6e7abacked Yes3c14,388$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe10e…61d8backed Yes3c13,446$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c12,814$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.715132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes3c12,676$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.132330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x036d…1aabbacked Yes3c11,085$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c10,523$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.355315.1%8 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b7e…2273backed Yes4c10,178$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.1425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes3c9,895$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.73221.9%7 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+622.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ca…2d80backed Yes2c8,249$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf929…5902backed Yes2c8,134$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c7,833$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.681,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…e131backed Yes5c7,769$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.0750%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes4c7,376$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.11100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf76e…9629backed Yes2c7,240$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1550%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb49…1faabacked Yes5c7,222$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e2…2bdfbacked Yes3c7,107$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e6…3ae4backed Yes7c7,019$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c3c…1bc1backed Yes4c6,979$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes3c6,786$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.048821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9623…0ae3backed Yes3c6,742$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21880%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79e4…7140backed Yes2c6,603$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a3…b088backed Yes3c6,512$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17090%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e3…38e6backed Yes3c6,370$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8236…c14dbacked Yes3c6,023$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f1…b17bbacked Yes5c5,914$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes2c5,784$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.671131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1016…093dbacked Yes4c5,622$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ac…09dabacked Yes3c5,258$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes2c5,000$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11811013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x58c1…93debacked Yes2c4,893$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9647…b683backed Yes4c4,712$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e7…05e6backed Yes4c4,545$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.53333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+114.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…d044backed Yes3c4,540$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e37…676cbacked Yes7c4,429$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb2…b1dcbacked Yes3c4,361$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf69a…7b0abacked Yes6c4,247$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa238…0758backed Yes3c4,150$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66b2…cb03backed Yes4c4,129$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes2c4,012$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.973511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-73.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes2c4,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.13727%10 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…e233backed Yes5c3,957$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.06616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+389%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa8…8610backed Yes3c3,933$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5940…96edbacked Yes3c3,868$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick20cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0e3…e78dbacked Yes3c3,763$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+567.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes2c3,726$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.641612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+299.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeb5f…5e52backed Yes3c3,715$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3914…eff3backed Yes3c3,700$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfda…e687backed Yes6c3,695$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5131…5759backed Yes4c3,652$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f5…7ca7backed Yes2c3,650$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe70a…595bbacked Yes3c3,637$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847d…13d0backed Yes1c3,609$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.02911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+482.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84b…eef6backed Yes2c3,603$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes4c3,535$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.15166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-83.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c0…4633backed Yes5c3,514$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes3c3,493$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.37650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4a2…eefebacked Yes3c3,346$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf502…26e8backed Yes2c3,271$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.511414.3%2 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+375.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes2c3,260$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e5e…67e6backed Yes3c3,216$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8940…ba3cbacked Yes3c3,205$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a3d…3c8dbacked Yes3c3,184$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4022…d049backed Yes3c3,172$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-67.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f7…6c94backed Yes3c3,065$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-68.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd3a…aa4cbacked Yes4c3,037$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b76…6623backed Yes3c3,001$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes4c3,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.874330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abb…5e76backed Yes3c2,958$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3541…31e2backed Yes3c2,914$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-83.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…fd75backed Yes5c2,901$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d77…058dbacked Yes7c2,869$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes3c2,814$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33fd…f5efbacked Yes3c2,805$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c73…b7eebacked Yes4c2,745$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes4c2,714$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes2c2,707$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes4c2,698$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d0a…e004backed Yes2c2,688$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed1d…8707backed Yes3c2,643$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.232313%3 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,640$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.771,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…272ebacked Yes4c2,631$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.06120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef8…0dc3backed Yes4c2,589$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes2c2,583$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.951018.9%9 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid+115.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x670b…c127backed Yes5c2,535$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef6…b633backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe579…28a7backed Yes4c2,467$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2abd…f959backed Yes4c2,451$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x573b…c89cbacked Yes2c2,412$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ee9…8c23backed Yes4c2,401$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.