World Politics · resolved market
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe36af7728445b62f1e06a904041d5f1455f9c290b07b91fc903696d08db762be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,632,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $827,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,632,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 368 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f4a…5693backed Yes | 3c | 117,686$4,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 101,300$2,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,851.31 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 62,067$2,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,065.84 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7a…3644backed Yes | 4c | 61,263$2,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…250ebacked Yes | 6c | 31,731$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…8188backed Yes | 3c | 27,284$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ba…ce36backed Yes | 4c | 25,113$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…5017backed Yes | 4c | 22,123$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 3c | 21,462$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.05 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +611.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…e0ddbacked Yes | 2c | 18,682$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 16,832$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1126…6e7abacked Yes | 3c | 14,388$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…61d8backed Yes | 3c | 13,446$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 12,814$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.71 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 3c | 12,676$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.13 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…1aabbacked Yes | 3c | 11,085$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 10,523$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.35 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7e…2273backed Yes | 4c | 10,178$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 3c | 9,895$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.7 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ca…2d80backed Yes | 2c | 8,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf929…5902backed Yes | 2c | 8,134$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 7,833$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.68 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c19…e131backed Yes | 5c | 7,769$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,376$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf76e…9629backed Yes | 2c | 7,240$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…1faabacked Yes | 5c | 7,222$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e2…2bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 7,107$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e6…3ae4backed Yes | 7c | 7,019$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…1bc1backed Yes | 4c | 6,979$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 6,786$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.04 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…0ae3backed Yes | 3c | 6,742$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79e4…7140backed Yes | 2c | 6,603$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…b088backed Yes | 3c | 6,512$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…38e6backed Yes | 3c | 6,370$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8236…c14dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,023$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f1…b17bbacked Yes | 5c | 5,914$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 5,784$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.67 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…093dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,622$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ac…09dabacked Yes | 3c | 5,258$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…93debacked Yes | 2c | 4,893$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9647…b683backed Yes | 4c | 4,712$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e7…05e6backed Yes | 4c | 4,545$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9688…d044backed Yes | 3c | 4,540$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…676cbacked Yes | 7c | 4,429$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…b1dcbacked Yes | 3c | 4,361$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…7b0abacked Yes | 6c | 4,247$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…0758backed Yes | 3c | 4,150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…cb03backed Yes | 4c | 4,129$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 2c | 4,012$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.97 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…e233backed Yes | 5c | 3,957$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +389%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa8…8610backed Yes | 3c | 3,933$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…96edbacked Yes | 3c | 3,868$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…e78dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,763$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 2c | 3,726$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5f…5e52backed Yes | 3c | 3,715$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…eff3backed Yes | 3c | 3,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfda…e687backed Yes | 6c | 3,695$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5131…5759backed Yes | 4c | 3,652$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…7ca7backed Yes | 2c | 3,650$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…595bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,637$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847d…13d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,609$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +482.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…eef6backed Yes | 2c | 3,603$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes | 4c | 3,535$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…4633backed Yes | 5c | 3,514$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 3c | 3,493$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a2…eefebacked Yes | 3c | 3,346$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…26e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,271$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 5cpaid | +375.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,260$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…67e6backed Yes | 3c | 3,216$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8940…ba3cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,205$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3d…3c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 3,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…d049backed Yes | 3c | 3,172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…6c94backed Yes | 3c | 3,065$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…aa4cbacked Yes | 4c | 3,037$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b76…6623backed Yes | 3c | 3,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 3,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…5e76backed Yes | 3c | 2,958$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…31e2backed Yes | 3c | 2,914$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fd75backed Yes | 5c | 2,901$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d77…058dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,869$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,814$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…f5efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,805$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c73…b7eebacked Yes | 4c | 2,745$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…b9bbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,714$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,707$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 4c | 2,698$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…e004backed Yes | 2c | 2,688$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed1d…8707backed Yes | 3c | 2,643$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,640$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…272ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,631$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…0dc3backed Yes | 4c | 2,589$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 2c | 2,583$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…c127backed Yes | 5c | 2,535$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef6…b633backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…28a7backed Yes | 4c | 2,467$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…f959backed Yes | 4c | 2,451$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…c89cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,412$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…8c23backed Yes | 4c | 2,401$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.