World Politics · resolved market
Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x201d65793c52d5fb5a2b992813f1077a3a95f0c6daa676965ac1b49e7182eb1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $907,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $255,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $907,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes | 1c | 58,279$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 2c | 38,998$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 26,801$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.34 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 23,247$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.89 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 2c | 21,997$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +365.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 20,290$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.68 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 15,407$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 412 | 1%4 W · 408 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd54…fc05backed Yes | 3c | 14,194$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 1c | 12,891$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.15 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 1c | 10,047$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 9,723$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…6977backed Yes | 2c | 9,227$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 2c | 9,062$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.09 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4196…1ec4backed Yes | 3c | 8,983$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.86 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +443.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,852$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…cc2bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,747$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x603f…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 8,515$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…63d3backed Yes | 1c | 8,505$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 8,225$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 1c | 8,200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +611.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,188$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 1c | 8,141$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 2c | 8,090$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…2658backed Yes | 4c | 8,048$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9110…8a81backed Yes | 1c | 7,915$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…8833backed Yes | 1c | 7,159$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a18…e24cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,014$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2c…e841backed Yes | 1c | 5,729$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,391$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae3a…912dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,037$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 1c | 4,962$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 0c | 4,952$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…9e29backed Yes | 1c | 4,852$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7123…9ed6backed Yes | 1c | 4,819$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e5…b526backed Yes | 2c | 4,361$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…093dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,268$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes | 2c | 4,118$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +553%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.14 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a8…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,963$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…8a36backed Yes | 2c | 3,745$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1f…f1cfbacked Yes | 0c | 3,690$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes | 1c | 3,681$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +622.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,639$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,624$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba1…c7a4backed Yes | 2c | 3,619$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,608$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2790…faa6backed Yes | 2c | 3,534$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…56dbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,333$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…6b24backed Yes | 2c | 3,297$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +2,049.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes | 2c | 3,282$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +289%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,258$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…c1e5backed Yes | 2c | 3,158$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…3b90backed Yes | 0c | 3,034$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 1c | 3,001$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +562.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes | 1c | 2,975$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +447.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa72b…00c0backed Yes | 2c | 2,955$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 1c | 2,945$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 101 | 8.9%9 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705a…9d48backed Yes | 2c | 2,925$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144c…e424backed Yes | 0c | 2,700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +1,129.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…4433backed Yes | 2c | 2,554$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes | 2c | 2,321$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d3…8a7dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,299$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +642.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Yes | 2c | 2,218$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 2c | 2,212$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…d3e3backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…d7febacked Yes | 1c | 2,155$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d0…8d02backed Yes | 2c | 2,089$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +220.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x332f…a130backed Yes | 2c | 2,078$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa567…71bcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,056$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 3c | 2,041$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +400.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +574.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5260…fd71backed Yes | 1c | 1,973$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb668…8055backed Yes | 1c | 1,971$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…dd29backed Yes | 1c | 1,918$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaced…c771backed Yes | 1c | 1,903$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +1,759.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733e…fbccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,895$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +1,448.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 1c | 1,827$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…8f37backed Yes | 2c | 1,781$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…4db5backed Yes | 1c | 1,679$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +1,605.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa09f…7780backed Yes | 1c | 1,667$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa377…22eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,643$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…e878backed Yes | 1c | 1,590$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…ab83backed Yes | 1c | 1,563$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e8…c939backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +299.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…191cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 6cpaid | +303.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf24…8fddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,498$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b59…dd43backed Yes | 2c | 1,493$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes | 2c | 1,468$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ef…1575backed Yes | 2c | 1,458$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…272ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,454$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,278$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 2c | 1,270$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?this page
- Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope?No won
- Will Angelo Scola be the next pope?No won
- Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope?No won
- Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope?No won
- Will Fernando Filoni be the next pope?No won
- Will Francis Arinze be the next pope?No won
- Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Claude Hollerich be the next pope?No won
- Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope?No won
- Will Kurt Koch be the next pope?No won
- Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?No won
- Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?No won
- Will Mario Grech be the next pope?No won
- Will Mark Ouellet be the next pope?No won
- Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope?No won
- Will Peter Turkson be the next pope?No won
- Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope?No won
- Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?No won
- Will Péter Erdő be the next pope?No won
- Will Raymond Burke be the next pope?No won
- Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope?Yes won
- Will Robert Sarah be the next pope?No won
- Will Wim Eijk be the next pope?No won
- Will another person be the next Pope?No won
- Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.