TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$907,943
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$255,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $907,943 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes1c58,279$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+33.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes2c38,998$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c26,801$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.346883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c23,247$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.895132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes2c21,997$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+365.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes1c20,290$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.68160%0 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c15,407$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.254121%4 W · 408 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd54…fc05backed Yes3c14,194$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.9570%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes1c12,891$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.154524.4%11 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+103.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes1c10,047$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.04449.1%4 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick10cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes1c9,723$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.793614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d7…6977backed Yes2c9,227$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes2c9,062$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.09214.8%1 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick10cpaid+150.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4196…1ec4backed Yes3c8,983$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.86812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+443.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes2c8,852$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1614330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd057…cc2bbacked Yes1c8,747$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x603f…33a1backed Yes1c8,515$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a10…63d3backed Yes1c8,505$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+154.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c8,225$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.221131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes1c8,200$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.42711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+611.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,188$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.171,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes1c8,141$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.396250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes2c8,090$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-65.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45e…2658backed Yes4c8,048$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.3160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9110…8a81backed Yes1c7,915$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a9…8833backed Yes1c7,159$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a18…e24cbacked Yes1c6,014$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b2c…e841backed Yes1c5,729$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked Yes1c5,391$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.052245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae3a…912dbacked Yes2c5,037$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes1c4,962$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7618530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes0c4,952$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.441225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-52.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0085…9e29backed Yes1c4,852$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7123…9ed6backed Yes1c4,819$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7e5…b526backed Yes2c4,361$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…093dbacked Yes2c4,268$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9680%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f2…caf1backed Yes2c4,118$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+553%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes3c4,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1410037%37 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c4,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a8…db3dbacked Yes1c3,963$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9a…8a36backed Yes2c3,745$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c1f…f1cfbacked Yes0c3,690$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65a5…f5b7backed Yes1c3,681$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.093221.9%7 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+622.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c3,639$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.514521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c3,624$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.81,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba1…c7a4backed Yes2c3,619$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes1c3,608$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.515832.8%19 W · 39 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+75%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2790…faa6backed Yes2c3,534$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef86…56dbbacked Yes2c3,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd639…6b24backed Yes2c3,297$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.36250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick2cpaid+2,049.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59a3…a0aabacked Yes2c3,282$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+289%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes1c3,258$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.473823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4a…c1e5backed Yes2c3,158$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9366…3b90backed Yes0c3,034$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes1c3,001$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.412630.2%38 W · 88 L-0.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid+86.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82c6…f1f9backed Yes2c3,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541225%3 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+562.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa7…8ea1backed Yes1c2,975$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.083119.4%6 W · 25 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+447.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa72b…00c0backed Yes2c2,955$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c2,945$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.741018.9%9 W · 92 L+0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid+115.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705a…9d48backed Yes2c2,925$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x144c…e424backed Yes0c2,700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+1,129.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes2c2,554$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+131.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e0…a8e0backed Yes2c2,321$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d3…8a7dbacked Yes2c2,299$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+642.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes2c2,218$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356322.2%14 W · 49 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabf4…c381backed Yes2c2,212$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d77…d3e3backed Yes2c2,200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dbc…d7febacked Yes1c2,155$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c1…ffabbacked Yes1c2,120$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-35.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d0…8d02backed Yes2c2,089$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.98195.3%1 W · 18 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+220.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x332f…a130backed Yes2c2,078$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa567…71bcbacked Yes2c2,056$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x616b…72f7backed Yes3c2,041$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57175.9%1 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+400.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb2…3e05backed Yes2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.621020%2 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+574.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes2c2,000$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.816131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid+8.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes1c1,973$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.751631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb668…8055backed Yes1c1,971$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x169e…dd29backed Yes1c1,918$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.98825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaced…c771backed Yes1c1,903$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.08616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+1,759.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x733e…fbccbacked Yes1c1,895$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.63616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick3cpaid+1,448.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes1c1,827$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.523342.4%14 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x968c…8f37backed Yes2c1,781$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1970…4db5backed Yes1c1,679$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick4cpaid+1,605.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa09f…7780backed Yes1c1,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa377…22eabacked Yes2c1,643$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c16…e878backed Yes1c1,590$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1d7…ab83backed Yes1c1,563$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.891010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x130f…6e99backed Yes1c1,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-64.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes2c1,500$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+299.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6b25…191cbacked Yes1c1,500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick6cpaid+303.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf24…8fddbacked Yes2c1,498$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b59…dd43backed Yes2c1,493$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes2c1,468$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x79ef…1575backed Yes2c1,458$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc1…272ebacked Yes1c1,454$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes2c1,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5624736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2035…0c4ebacked Yes2c1,278$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.18616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick4cpaid+140.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes2c1,270$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.815523.6%13 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid+51.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.