Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8439672630693380f3ceee39c242d20a2a6c0cb9e9ade33fa5475f33d07b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $741,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $423,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $741,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa292…2a5cbacked Yes | 1c | 124,996$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 5c | 24,693$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 2c | 19,756$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 11c | 17,739$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.89 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 6c | 16,344$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.21 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 19c | 12,528$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.58 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 14c | 10,406$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.25 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 12c | 10,300$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.59 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 10,049$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.96 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 4c | 8,931$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.39 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 10c | 8,614$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.3 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 8,158$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,323.91 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b9…07f6backed Yes | 8c | 7,833$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.85 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 12c | 7,577$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.74 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 6c | 6,859$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.56 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 6c | 6,403$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.83 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 10c | 6,065$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.6 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 5c | 5,912$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.47 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 5,900$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.26 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 8c | 5,871$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 1c | 5,795$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 5,606$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.86 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 2c | 5,507$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 5,017$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.98 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,833$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 10c | 4,790$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.2 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 24c | 4,410$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 4,068$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.49 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 4,050$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.49 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 3,965$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.65 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,774$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 3,609$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.17 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 22c | 3,486$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.21 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 19c | 3,232$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.89 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 21c | 3,098$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.81 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 3,036$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.71 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 4c | 2,947$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.41 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,900$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 2,882$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.43 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 20c | 2,815$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.7 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,523$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.57 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 10c | 2,506$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.78 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 9c | 2,300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 13c | 2,234$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 2,187$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,046$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d8…e57abacked Yes | 1c | 2,001$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +144%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 18c | 1,954$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 1,810$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.65 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,751$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,603$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.88 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 11c | 1,520$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 24c | 1,510$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 12c | 1,501$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.24 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1069…c029backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 79c | 1,456$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 21c | 1,440$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.93 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,373$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.17 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 27c | 1,254$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.06 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,230$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…303bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,220$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,218$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.13 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 16c | 1,206$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.65 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,184$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.7 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…d033backed Yes | 14c | 1,180$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 10c | 1,138$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked No | 74c | 1,098$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 7c | 1,050$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed No | 72c | 1,028$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 15c | 995.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 10c | 993.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 29c | 977.83$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…9263backed Yes | 13c | 955.43$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 949.84$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.62 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 922.14$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.81 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…03bdbacked Yes | 7c | 881.26$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 20c | 879.8$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.62 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 15c | 866$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 75c | 847.27$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 12c | 825$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 14c | 816.66$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 15c | 800.81$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e72…0306backed Yes | 10c | 775.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 775.47$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 18c | 766.61$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.46 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c7…5142backed Yes | 34c | 746.9$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.95 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 3c | 713.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 2c | 686.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 666.27$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 4c | 665.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked No | 80c | 650$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.7 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.