Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d531e01347f685b4a66493184857be628ae8e2c5b8d0dacb595c92b570fb44b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $470,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $470,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 29,172$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 15,764$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.31 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 15,725$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.76 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 13,021$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.76 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 12,533$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.12 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 12,242$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.07 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 9c | 10,704$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.24 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 9c | 10,166$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.26 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 8c | 9,926$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.41 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 5c | 9,536$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.74 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 2c | 6,604$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.52 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,414$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 1c | 6,316$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 13c | 6,100$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.89 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 9c | 5,930$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 13c | 4,788$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.35 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 4,280$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.13 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 4,049$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.93 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,754$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 15c | 3,508$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 11c | 3,374$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.22 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 3,310$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.22 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 9c | 3,041$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.38 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 2,872$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,624$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,579$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.56 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,553$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 2,544$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.97 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,510$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…e333backed Yes | 13c | 2,355$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 13c | 2,159$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.3 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 5c | 2,075$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 17c | 2,065$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 4c | 2,027$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,017$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.04 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 16c | 1,731$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.36 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 3c | 1,620$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 4c | 1,362$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 5c | 1,309$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 14c | 1,244$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.93 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 13c | 1,194$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.7 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…ec0fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,139$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,085$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.38 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 9c | 1,084$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 1,076$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.94 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 1,062$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 7c | 1,035$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,033$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.07 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 11c | 1,017$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 930.01$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.51 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…2d71backed Yes | 8c | 924$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 19c | 875$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…91f0backed Yes | 8c | 858.47$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 851.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 9c | 840.55$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca9…e423backed Yes | 10c | 836.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f30…acaebacked Yes | 13c | 818.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 5c | 775$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 21c | 741.25$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.84 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 14c | 724.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…303bbacked Yes | 12c | 722.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 15c | 700.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 6c | 699.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…c47fbacked Yes | 16c | 696.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f1…cb5fbacked Yes | 10c | 692.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 630.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 5c | 629.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 12c | 617.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9860…4bd0backed Yes | 16c | 601.46$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 8c | 599.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 15c | 590.82$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 16c | 573.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 15c | 555.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 3c | 553.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 3c | 550.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 9c | 540.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 17c | 517.22$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 11c | 509.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 4c | 501.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 18c | 500$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 15c | 500$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…f9a5backed Yes | 17c | 483.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 4c | 482.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 18c | 478.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 16c | 475.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…9b39backed Yes | 12c | 470$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 3c | 460$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…2925backed Yes | 12c | 432.21$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 4c | 429.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…8490backed Yes | 6c | 423.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 10c | 420$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 11c | 396.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…52e7backed Yes | 20c | 393.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9414…0b42backed Yes | 5c | 380.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.