Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3af7fc2706ab2fee576a991a288150859874cb8263534750cb7c3296edf787b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $358,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 1c | 23,217$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.82 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 1c | 22,902$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.68 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 13,992$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 8,156$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.67 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 3c | 7,961$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.73 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…e333backed Yes | 3c | 7,431$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 3c | 6,293$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 2c | 5,612$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.98 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,480$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,175$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 6c | 4,427$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.84 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,255$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 1c | 4,115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,601$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,039$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,913$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 1c | 2,601$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 2,579$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 1c | 2,139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 2c | 2,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 1,811$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,653$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 1,643$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 1,605$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 1,542$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,514$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,465$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 1,206$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,170$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 8c | 1,010$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,009$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 9c | 1,001$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 980.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 1c | 904$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…e8ccbacked Yes | 9c | 805.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5022…d1dfbacked Yes | 11c | 799.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 6c | 791.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 691.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 8c | 634.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 545.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…a0adbacked Yes | 10c | 545.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 4c | 526.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 8c | 500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 10c | 478.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…fc66backed Yes | 7c | 443.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…9d0abacked Yes | 12c | 287.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 13c | 280$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 7c | 222.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 10c | 203.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 8c | 197.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2514…d784backed Yes | 13c | 175$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…1f07backed Yes | 8c | 174$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 13c | 173$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13cb…0305backed Yes | 13c | 169$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…736abacked Yes | 13c | 165.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 12c | 160.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…9aefbacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9206…42a1backed Yes | 14c | 148.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2c…e8ebbacked Yes | 9c | 108$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238e…6165backed Yes | 12c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…5db9backed Yes | 12c | 99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a7…2f14backed Yes | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.