Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb921eceb145f5006861387a2775b93765ec1f493f29a06cbad57e36e927b7da8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $629,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $299,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $629,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 37,261$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 29,961$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.32 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 21,232$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.69 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 14,650$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.89 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 12,924$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.73 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…e333backed Yes | 2c | 12,216$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,993$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 4c | 11,860$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.65 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 5c | 11,090$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.75 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 9c | 11,079$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.88 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 2c | 11,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 3c | 8,923$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 12c | 7,728$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.2 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 2c | 7,244$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.88 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 0c | 6,962$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 4c | 6,523$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.63 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed Yes | 1c | 6,246$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 2c | 5,054$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 4,923$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.95 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 10c | 4,819$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.05 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 6c | 4,530$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.18 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 3,919$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.54 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,239$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,089$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 1c | 3,023$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 14c | 3,003$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.7 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,924$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 2,876$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 3c | 2,651$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 2,520$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 2,179$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,028$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 4c | 1,999$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,681$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,621$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 14c | 1,566$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.36 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 10c | 1,473$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 11c | 1,284$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.29 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 8c | 1,252$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 1,218$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…fc66backed Yes | 9c | 1,144$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…6e1abacked Yes | 1c | 1,055$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 15c | 1,021$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.42 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 8c | 987.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed Yes | 5c | 964.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 4c | 922.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 14c | 863.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 4c | 850$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 806.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 801.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 721.71$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 716.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…c046backed Yes | 2c | 693.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 11c | 471.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 2c | 436$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 7c | 351.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ef…11edbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7a…87ebbacked Yes | 7c | 304.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 14c | 285.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 14c | 245.93$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 10c | 243$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…4c2abacked Yes | 11c | 232.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…f1afbacked Yes | 10c | 201.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 14c | 178.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…2953backed Yes | 12c | 174.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 12c | 130.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…5e3cbacked Yes | 12c | 120.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x287b…c7a8backed Yes | 11c | 116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 14c | 105.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.