Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5561f1a7befdd9a0be4b7f805fb3610139f12825beea62413ece7255be14bdc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $390,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 29,454$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.31 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 17,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.36 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 6c | 12,442$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.42 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 5c | 12,417$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.19 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 3c | 11,915$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.26 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 11,265$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 0c | 10,864$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 8,876$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.99 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 8,117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 7,626$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.27 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 7,331$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 9c | 6,978$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.56 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 10c | 6,481$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.35 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 6c | 5,837$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.1 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 0c | 5,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.72 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,778$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 13c | 4,325$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.45 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 13c | 4,215$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.93 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 2c | 4,200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.19 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 5c | 3,536$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 8c | 3,484$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 6c | 3,310$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…e333backed Yes | 9c | 3,297$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.53 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 2,958$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,542$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 9c | 2,407$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.27 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 1,787$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.33 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 3c | 1,651$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 9c | 1,584$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.34 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,579$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 2c | 1,492$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 3c | 1,443$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 4c | 1,329$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,322$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.87 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 1,280$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Yes | 10c | 1,200$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,161$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.43 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 6c | 1,143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 14c | 1,127$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.86 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 13c | 1,088$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.75 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 1,086$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 987.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 2c | 940.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 2c | 861.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 12c | 824.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 15c | 779.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…8490backed Yes | 7c | 758.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 3c | 743.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 3c | 714.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…52e7backed Yes | 12c | 655.87$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 7c | 610.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 5c | 600.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 13c | 592.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 561.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 4c | 550$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 12c | 520$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 499.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 3c | 475$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 7c | 467.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 5c | 439.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…b81cbacked Yes | 3c | 410$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 9c | 399.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 10c | 373.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 11c | 366.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 5c | 351$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…413fbacked Yes | 13c | 348.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 6c | 344.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 16c | 332.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 3c | 321.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 17c | 294.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 13c | 284.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…ec0fbacked Yes | 15c | 276.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…ae31backed Yes | 13c | 250.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 6c | 249$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 17c | 228.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…e8ccbacked Yes | 18c | 223.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…6c85backed Yes | 12c | 214$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 15c | 212.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585d…9423backed Yes | 10c | 209$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…0280backed Yes | 10c | 208.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 10c | 192.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 11c | 185$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…736abacked Yes | 12c | 165.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 18c | 159.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 17c | 154.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…4873backed Yes | 9c | 143$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…2f14backed Yes | 15c | 135$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.