Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac99865554746124d0dfc0ddea04ca02f25de224b5f585bd00cb262cd449ee26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $424,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $424,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 60,012$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.33 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 18,440$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.03 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 8c | 17,578$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.16 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 15,242$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 11,074$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.26 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 2c | 8,999$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.57 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 1c | 8,574$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 3c | 7,802$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.01 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 7,555$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.89 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 7,257$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…1499backed Yes | 2c | 6,846$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 1c | 6,655$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 5,090$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…e333backed Yes | 1c | 4,756$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 4c | 4,548$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,418$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,326$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,902$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.41 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 8c | 3,571$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,742$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 2,657$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,634$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.01 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 4c | 2,445$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 2,255$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 1,757$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 8c | 1,705$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,575$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbd…261bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,309$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,287$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 2c | 1,134$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 578 | 11.4%66 W · 512 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 8c | 1,050$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 4c | 831.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…c28dbacked Yes | 2c | 806.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 3c | 740.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 712.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…e8ccbacked Yes | 10c | 629.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab2…f143backed Yes | 8c | 427.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 6c | 398.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 343.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 8c | 309.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…5e3cbacked Yes | 6c | 305.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 8c | 304.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 5c | 253.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…9c92backed Yes | 6c | 237$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad7…8ceabacked Yes | 6c | 234.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…4d66backed Yes | 6c | 234.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 7c | 233.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e9…4c3cbacked Yes | 6c | 224.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 9c | 207.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 8c | 177.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb85…1608backed Yes | 7c | 161$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…9b39backed Yes | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 10c | 153.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf69…f66cbacked Yes | 10c | 132.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…c97abacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da4…cfe5backed Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.