Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbde33dee30a79b352e45d9364ec71a7fe318d080408057bdf930459cee83e18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $372,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $222,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd23…c4efbacked Yes | 0c | 66,666$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 41,437$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.29 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12d…d764backed Yes | 3c | 30,595$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.44 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,004$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 8,862$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca3…5a7cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,319$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 6,435$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.03 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 5,600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,481$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,354$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 2c | 4,053$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 0c | 3,888$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 1c | 3,708$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 3,397$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,773$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 2,619$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…0dd3backed Yes | 1c | 2,246$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 2,205$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 3c | 2,074$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 1c | 1,802$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 1c | 1,747$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,674$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…808bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,628$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 1c | 1,531$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 4c | 1,472$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,203$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,044$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 2c | 1,015$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 1c | 900$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 3c | 744.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…445fbacked Yes | 3c | 707.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 3c | 664.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf312…9b76backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…e60abacked Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 5c | 401.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…2d98backed Yes | 3c | 329.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…d312backed Yes | 4c | 270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.