Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe17a31aa150c5982b4032e3850d047e6a3f428743a2ccb8369492647100d01f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $258,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 12,932$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 3c | 11,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,724$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.08 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 7,704$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 7,109$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.63 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 6,339$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.07 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 4c | 5,741$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.22 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 4c | 4,745$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.8 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,476$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 4,046$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 3c | 4,023$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.79 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 3,882$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,787$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 3,536$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 2,700$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 4c | 2,301$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 2c | 1,993$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,804$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 4c | 1,604$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…8b8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,551$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,488$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,470$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd862…6588backed Yes | 1c | 1,297$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,053$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…3034backed Yes | 5c | 1,020$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…5e3cbacked Yes | 2c | 865.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 2c | 849.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 7c | 801.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 645.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 8c | 644.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…808bbacked Yes | 2c | 576.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 388.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 4c | 360.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…e60abacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 7c | 302.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab81…7d07backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 8c | 131.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.