Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aeda357c9423757068b37e1f7ecc186416df21bb6f23a0ffa79170702955975
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $653,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $586,670
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 47c | 27,286$12,919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,367.16 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 42c | 12,921$5,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,506.19 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 13c | 12,013$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,424.06 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 28c | 11,594$3,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,299.66 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 21c | 10,782$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,556.47 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 14c | 9,547$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,229.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 41c | 8,121$3,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,318.56 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…8978backed Yes | 33c | 8,010$2,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,387.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 21c | 8,009$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,311.16 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…e3cdbacked Yes | 57c | 7,820$4,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,397.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 27c | 7,696$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,597.13 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 7,469$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,765.01 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 43c | 7,224$3,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,120.47 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 32c | 7,074$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,778.66 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 24c | 6,025$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,550.65 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 27c | 6,006$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,357.34 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 72c | 5,368$3,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.36 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 43c | 5,230$2,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,999.91 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…a508backed Yes | 59c | 5,101$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 60c | 4,887$2,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,917.66 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 50c | 4,871$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,418.26 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 11c | 4,795$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,276.63 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 30c | 4,738$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293.82 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 51c | 4,618$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.44 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 19c | 4,345$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,497.5 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,250$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,464.99 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 22c | 4,142$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,245.47 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 39c | 4,046$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,487.51 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 18c | 3,969$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264.36 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 22c | 3,720$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,913.37 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 3,649$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,105.21 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 37c | 3,595$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 33c | 3,397$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.26 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 28c | 3,123$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.26 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Yes | 66c | 3,052$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 47c | 3,037$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.57 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 46c | 2,828$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.32 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 30c | 2,664$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.25 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…3ba6backed No | 63c | 2,474$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 69c | 2,408$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,661.58 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 31c | 2,300$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 25c | 2,212$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.32 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 19c | 2,171$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.26 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 22c | 2,131$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.93 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 11c | 2,110$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.1 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 33c | 2,021$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.64 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…1e99backed Yes | 59c | 2,006$1,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,957$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 16c | 1,887$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.23 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 40c | 1,872$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.3 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 68c | 1,865$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.29 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 21c | 1,822$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.77 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…de29backed Yes | 49c | 1,790$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 65c | 1,664$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,628$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Yes | 49c | 1,468$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 56c | 1,429$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.35 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 21c | 1,384$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.8 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 24c | 1,325$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 38c | 1,303$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.23 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 35c | 1,283$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.93 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…ad34backed Yes | 11c | 1,241$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 49c | 1,240$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 71c | 1,226$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.08 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa2…47eebacked Yes | 29c | 1,212$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 32c | 1,199$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.91 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 50c | 1,107$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.65 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 49c | 1,106$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.18 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.31 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 27c | 1,080$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.7 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 24c | 1,079$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.57 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 43c | 1,022$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.16 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 35c | 1,012$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.04 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…f68abacked Yes | 10c | 1,001$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…7872backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.92 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 26c | 979.06$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.06 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 28c | 977.64$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.89 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 35c | 972.57$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.93 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eda…f03cbacked Yes | 59c | 962.01$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 17c | 954.29$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.29 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 26c | 930.62$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.6 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e0…2683backed Yes | 33c | 910.63$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 19c | 862.08$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.77 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 19c | 854.39$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.39 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 851.67$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.85 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 15c | 819.68$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.28 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 26c | 811.61$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.61 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 37c | 752.81$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.99 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 21c | 750.29$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.29 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 19c | 748.38$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.61 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 30c | 744.84$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.02 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 24c | 744.43$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.13 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 715.06$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.3 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 14c | 704.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.29 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 63c | 700$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 47c | 689$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked Yes | 64c | 665$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.53 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 56c | 650.23$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.64 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.