Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9af374d23b7b612550b1330ad54260ee3727fa109f40789ff7030b94d736ad81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $562,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $562,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 8c | 42,353$3,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.9 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 5c | 25,968$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.37 | 663 | 22.3%148 W · 515 L | -34.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 7c | 22,363$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.62 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 5c | 20,264$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.67 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 1c | 16,676$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.19 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 4c | 15,788$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.72 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 14,184$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.48 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 12c | 13,718$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.09 | 589 | 22.1%130 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 10c | 11,400$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.45 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 13c | 10,457$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,374.22 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 9c | 10,009$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.03 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 10c | 9,736$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.36 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 12c | 9,113$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.8 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 7,361$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.58 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 10c | 6,545$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.81 | 526 | 9.9%52 W · 474 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 15c | 5,753$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 5,216$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.28 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 5,132$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.64 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 9c | 5,033$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…5a53backed Yes | 3c | 4,459$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 10c | 3,837$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.94 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,765$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 3,687$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.07 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 10c | 3,557$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.88 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 14c | 3,433$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.98 | 696 | 15.7%109 W · 587 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 6c | 3,036$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 11c | 2,960$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.87 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 9c | 2,958$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.11 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 2,887$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.93 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 11c | 2,735$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.7 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 9c | 2,665$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 2,594$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.06 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 17c | 2,510$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.53 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 7c | 2,500$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.5 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 388 | 6.4%25 W · 363 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,330$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.97 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 10c | 2,250$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 20c | 2,192$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.85 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 14c | 2,187$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.7 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 16c | 2,034$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.72 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,017$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.03 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 17c | 2,017$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.51 | 445 | 19.3%86 W · 359 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf34f…7872backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 14c | 1,993$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.98 | 280 | 20.7%58 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 15c | 1,715$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,659$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.73 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,512$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.78 | 2,188 | 3.9%85 W · 2,103 L | +4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 18c | 1,510$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.73 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 7c | 1,413$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 16c | 1,355$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 12c | 1,320$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.08 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 1,194$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,190$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,143$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.53 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 14c | 1,053$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 549 | 23%126 W · 423 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 10c | 986.84$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e0…2683backed Yes | 23c | 980.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 12c | 853.36$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.7 | 184 | 16.3%30 W · 154 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…f134backed Yes | 12c | 808.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 22c | 781.75$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb20…ef0abacked Yes | 15c | 773$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 18c | 735.23$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.98 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 17c | 729.22$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 19c | 727.21$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 700.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 542 | 17.2%93 W · 449 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 857 | 16.5%141 W · 716 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…445fbacked Yes | 14c | 668.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…254cbacked Yes | 13c | 637.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 18c | 635.16$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…22dabacked Yes | 19c | 619.21$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 2c | 599.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ef…11edbacked Yes | 9c | 580$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 18c | 552.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 15c | 551.23$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb26…94ddbacked Yes | 9c | 550$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 20c | 546.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 16c | 527.86$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 15c | 527.09$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 3c | 512.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 10c | 508.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…2177backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…413fbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3485…d8bbbacked Yes | 11c | 499.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…dc44backed Yes | 2c | 494.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 11c | 467.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.23 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 8c | 463.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 19c | 453.58$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…7ee3backed Yes | 10c | 437.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f5…ef1fbacked Yes | 4c | 432.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…4615backed Yes | 10c | 411$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.