Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddeada500febd733cdce995bce68c1baf8e8669b2c22be6643fcdc6ca451b472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $973,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $562,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $973,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 47,045$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.02 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 4c | 43,786$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,741.27 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 3c | 37,168$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.33 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 26,009$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 3c | 25,266$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.4 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 3c | 24,341$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.61 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 1c | 23,765$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.16 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 21,550$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.73 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946d…bfcebacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 3c | 16,584$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.88 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 15,208$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.72 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 0c | 15,065$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 15,000$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.96 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…a615backed Yes | 0c | 14,327$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,182$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…b0e0backed Yes | 2c | 11,132$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc9…fb92backed Yes | 0c | 10,744$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 7c | 10,583$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.87 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 0c | 10,015$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 8c | 9,754$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.88 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 0c | 8,496$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…0bd8backed Yes | 0c | 7,984$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 1c | 7,642$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 0c | 7,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…5c43backed Yes | 2c | 6,328$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.39 | 380 | 10%38 W · 342 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…61b4backed Yes | 0c | 5,499$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 5,435$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.82 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 0c | 5,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 4c | 4,848$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.34 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 0c | 4,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Yes | 1c | 4,630$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -93.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4a…b9a4backed Yes | 1c | 4,088$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…ae9abacked Yes | 0c | 3,523$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 6c | 3,429$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.1 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 0c | 3,178$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 7c | 3,053$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 4c | 3,022$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 5c | 2,790$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.42 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 2,713$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9b81backed Yes | 0c | 2,567$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 7c | 2,560$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 1c | 2,250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…60c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,218$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…ad34backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 12c | 2,088$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.32 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 8c | 1,988$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.03 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 8c | 1,911$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 9c | 1,812$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.61 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…8448backed Yes | 1c | 1,753$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 1c | 1,533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,493$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…2d98backed Yes | 10c | 1,266$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 1c | 1,210$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9faa…bbedbacked Yes | 7c | 1,198$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 175 | 16.6%29 W · 146 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x693d…fc7cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 1,071$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b21…5c12backed Yes | 9c | 1,069$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 1,053$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.78 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…cf49backed Yes | 2c | 1,029$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…7f5abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.86 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe529…8a7cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883c…f8c2backed Yes | 14c | 992.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa862…46e2backed Yes | 10c | 849.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 840.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…3034backed Yes | 7c | 799.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…c8d3backed Yes | 16c | 775.92$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…1a92backed Yes | 1c | 775.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518d…0018backed Yes | 4c | 748.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…4738backed Yes | 7c | 717.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39bf…fbf8backed Yes | 15c | 714.35$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 8c | 659.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 5c | 654.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 8c | 646.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbc…739cbacked Yes | 4c | 624.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfb…7b61backed Yes | 3c | 623.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d7…945ebacked Yes | 5c | 607.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 17c | 574.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…6695backed Yes | 8c | 572.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fd…7099backed Yes | 2c | 562.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…254cbacked Yes | 10c | 543.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 6c | 540.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 4c | 524.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 18c | 513.93$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…9fcdbacked Yes | 15c | 494.58$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07f…4000backed Yes | 11c | 471.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 235–249 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–264 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 20–27?No won
- Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 20–27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.