TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Elon tag @realDonaldTrump on X in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c4,104$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.263989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…d5dfbacked Yes6c1,665$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes8c1,300$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1075736.8%21 W · 36 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No77c1,200$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.0818745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65d7…19c4backed Yes44c1,139$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes27c1,056$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.0999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7272…a67dbacked Yes42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9596…b1e4backed No59c717.67$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca75…657fbacked No75c685$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.52933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No73c661.8$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.541850%9 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes30c660.98$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.297751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c623.73$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed Yes27c500$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1376349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes16c452.9$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.159142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a8e…bf54backed Yes35c436.36$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a6…e763backed Yes17c422.72$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes26c408.35$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.2312533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No52c400$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.723543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes20c400$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes38c391.87$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.344946.9%23 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x454b…8bacbacked No69c340.79$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c8…5ababacked No54c320$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.212470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.7wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+46.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed Yes31c319$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.891233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755431.5%17 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5543…4195backed No73c297.28$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.28850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a7a…4880backed Yes3c288.49$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes20c279.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7237533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa34…689bbacked Yes34c275.12$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.54616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec8…620cbacked Yes5c273.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-71.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes21c260$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9515238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes33c257.12$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.771,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88b6…3cffbacked No71c250$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.15265.4%34 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes36c230.4$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.293844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes22c230$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.65230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed Yes21c230$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.33823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca14…f425backed Yes49c229.99$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No57c229.44$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.751827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes29c225.44$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4216544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x57d0…a1a0backed Yes22c210$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes48c208.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465a…df39backed Yes20c204.92$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No77c186$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436750.7%34 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c4…c441backed Yes54c181.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x064c…2de1backed No68c175.79$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.974158.5%24 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…2486backed No65c170.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.213444.1%15 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4c…b219backed Yes33c152.73$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5113455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273053.3%16 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+132.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Yes24c150$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No66c149.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.99988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7ed…e6b7backed No70c143.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed No75c133.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.972969%20 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes51c133.54$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4419638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No59c130.52$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.528433.3%28 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No70c120$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.2813138.9%51 W · 80 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes45c120$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.28355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No68c117.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.113548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce70…0a90backed Yes52c114.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No67c112.73$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.28038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes18c111.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206031.7%19 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes30c105$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.53417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55c…6f76backed Yes51c103.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb678…f74dbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe497…5403backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6511646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484673.9%34 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3015243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc652…11b1backed Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes21c95.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69a0…e5f6backed No54c92.59$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.59333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1939…0f41backed No61c90$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes29c83.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.514837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes42c78.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.964748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No63c77.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8413046.9%61 W · 69 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes34c73.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed No70c71.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa577…b06abacked Yes31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick49cpaid-79.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x62b7…c9bcbacked Yes29c68.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2063…1eedbacked Yes32c62.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick59cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e9d…478abacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154615.2%7 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-58.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3ade…f2cdbacked No69c49.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+59.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No69c47$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.572236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes33c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.361,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ed…789abacked Yes33c41.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ed…b06fbacked Yes25c40.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2df5…51acbacked No59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.58757.5%50 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed No51c39.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.442556%14 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7033…3f7dbacked Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No56c39.09$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.23860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.043030%9 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-38.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe37e…1878backed No56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9533…eedabacked Yes44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab95…c8cfbacked No77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.471127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20e…d622backed No76c31.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes47c30.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3514048.6%68 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.