Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon tag @realDonaldTrump on X in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3cb4785b9dd0b50da7a3d9db1c7a3573258d2bf0aee8b3a9c547e703875029c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…d5dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,665$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 77c | 1,200$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.08 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 44c | 1,139$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 1,056$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.09 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…b1e4backed No | 59c | 717.67$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked No | 75c | 685$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 73c | 661.8$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.54 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 30c | 660.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 623.73$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 27c | 500$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 16c | 452.9$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…bf54backed Yes | 35c | 436.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…e763backed Yes | 17c | 422.72$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 26c | 408.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.23 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 38c | 391.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.34 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked No | 69c | 340.79$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 54c | 320$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.21 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed Yes | 31c | 319$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed No | 73c | 297.28$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7a…4880backed Yes | 3c | 288.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 279.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa34…689bbacked Yes | 34c | 275.12$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…620cbacked Yes | 5c | 273.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 21c | 260$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 257.12$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.77 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 71c | 250$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 36c | 230.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 21c | 230$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…f425backed Yes | 49c | 229.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 57c | 229.44$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 29c | 225.44$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…a1a0backed Yes | 22c | 210$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…df39backed Yes | 20c | 204.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…d3c7backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 77c | 186$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…c441backed Yes | 54c | 181.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 68c | 175.79$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed No | 65c | 170.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…b219backed Yes | 33c | 152.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…6221backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 66c | 149.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…e6b7backed No | 70c | 143.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed No | 75c | 133.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 51c | 133.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.44 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 59c | 130.52$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 68c | 117.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0a90backed Yes | 52c | 114.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 67c | 112.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 18c | 111.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 30c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…6f76backed Yes | 51c | 103.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…5403backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 152 | 43.4%66 W · 86 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc652…11b1backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 21c | 95.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…e5f6backed No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed No | 61c | 90$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 29c | 83.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 42c | 78.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 63c | 77.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 34c | 73.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 70c | 71.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…c9bcbacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Yes | 32c | 62.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…f2cdbacked No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 69c | 47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…789abacked Yes | 33c | 41.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…b06fbacked Yes | 25c | 40.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 51c | 39.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7033…3f7dbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 56c | 39.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…1878backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9533…eedabacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20e…d622backed No | 76c | 31.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 47c | 30.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.