TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$686,836
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$615,885

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $686,836 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 459 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa638…1d87backed Yes17c33,562$5,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,708.137525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes13c25,110$3,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,248.493839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bfb…a4a2backed Yes40c24,950$9,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,965.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes22c20,873$4,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,665.112065%13 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes3c15,820$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.29905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes11c14,665$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.124010%4 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No52c13,296$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,396.334852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes7c12,200$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.322119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-59%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes16c11,952$1,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,931.699734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes10c11,126$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,091.5725311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c10,061$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2113910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes20c10,002$1,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.462020%4 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes18c9,939$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.962729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-51.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes13c8,736$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.6510812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes11c8,586$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.7211530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes38c7,633$2,901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,900.531526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes20c7,140$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.5126238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes17c6,902$1,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.263912.8%5 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed Yes49c6,298$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes13c6,121$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.723132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No62c5,740$3,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,177.529037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes0c4,599$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes12c4,421$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.15850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+46.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes13c4,348$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.27128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-72.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes17c4,284$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.852540%10 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e2d…1039backed Yes4c4,229$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes2c4,035$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.56387.9%3 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid-58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a03…68d1backed Yes7c3,708$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.6540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No54c3,607$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.332774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes12c3,486$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick25cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed Yes14c3,424$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.64966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No61c3,108$1,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.2715451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No71c3,100$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.831662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf09…63c3backed Yes9c2,846$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked Yes66c2,798$1,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.6212547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc8…89b6backed Yes18c2,647$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No5c2,497$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,364.42650%3 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+2,714.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7018…05acbacked Yes5c2,375$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.86520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-61.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bfb…8445backed Yes19c2,349$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4503215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc835…8af5backed No53c2,308$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.034100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+61.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes41c2,280$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes12c2,270$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.413953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9e64…8fdfbacked No78c2,263$1,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8403…5c98backed Yes21c2,226$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-58.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c2,213$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9426318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c2,134$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.8730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No66c2,128$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.1214920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No59c2,100$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8511872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed Yes23c1,904$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.02757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No66c1,853$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.6115217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No77c1,820$1,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.953762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed No58c1,726$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.861163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c1,608$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.315327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes24c1,600$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.475632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x069f…b749backed Yes23c1,585$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3692744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x937e…db42backed No77c1,536$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe01a…567bbacked Yes38c1,522$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed Yes26c1,497$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.682450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f63…6643backed No71c1,468$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.811850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes20c1,463$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.690%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes39c1,442$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.033444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x830e…7099backed Yes15c1,408$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.8570%0 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked Yes50c1,373$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.651233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes56c1,314$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.073342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No67c1,302$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.2210241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f9…5b74backed Yes12c1,296$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd773…9e2cbacked No77c1,292$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf14c…4e18backed Yes7c1,287$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No60c1,241$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.98045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c1,224$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.1841736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x11de…38c3backed Yes49c1,215$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…1f4fbacked Yes5c1,161$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270c…f377backed Yes70c1,118$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ea…0882backed Yes44c1,112$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.41128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-85%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No73c1,099$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.216650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…2357backed Yes1c1,084$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes39c1,060$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.751040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb51…c971backed Yes16c1,060$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.331225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9331…a691backed Yes4c1,059$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf712…4bd0backed Yes47c1,051$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes19c1,040$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.64850%24 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes21c1,000$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.461723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4009962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803727%10 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8efa…f8c4backed No75c993.31$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.861266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ef…5289backed No67c988.99$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.561723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9194…c7a0backed Yes34c980.94$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed No68c970$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.41662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No40c967.61$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.074555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed No53c941.57$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes62c940.54$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.11145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No75c918.18$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.542060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes14c917.17$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.094022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85a2…632cbacked Yes33c913.72$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes41c907.07$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.34922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-66%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes20c900$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4314750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes45c900$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4052751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a97…24dabacked Yes14c895$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d9…89b1backed Yes40c889.53$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.