Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6316fee52c28ca4ac6705e5a65882150f97ec370918cf71b30b5a467e1eabc27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $670,026
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $517,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $670,026 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 415 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 16c | 22,904$3,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,638.52 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 24c | 22,826$5,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,438.05 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 20c | 12,000$2,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,359.12 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…37aabacked Yes | 44c | 11,847$5,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,155.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 23c | 9,360$2,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.81 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 75c | 8,021$5,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.39 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 21c | 7,162$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.2 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 31c | 6,958$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,184.84 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 63c | 6,894$4,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,584.88 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 27c | 6,825$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.08 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 27c | 6,584$1,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,806.1 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 13c | 6,478$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.13 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 45c | 6,338$2,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,827.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 17c | 6,325$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.99 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 21c | 6,135$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.42 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 22c | 6,027$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.57 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Yes | 16c | 5,065$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.58 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 19c | 5,010$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.3 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 52c | 4,896$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,544.77 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 31c | 4,530$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.53 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 21c | 4,356$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.27 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 22c | 4,171$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.66 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.4 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…4c2abacked Yes | 33c | 3,707$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 10c | 3,685$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.52 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 18c | 3,500$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.99 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 3,368$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.74 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…8697backed Yes | 43c | 3,194$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 30c | 3,190$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.63 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 50c | 3,129$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.17 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 23c | 3,057$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 23c | 3,000$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 25c | 2,891$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.78 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked No | 70c | 2,809$1,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.95 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 2,765$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.88 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,743$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.29 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 16c | 2,726$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.17 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 27c | 2,609$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.02 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 20c | 2,455$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 2,436$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.57 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 23c | 2,389$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.25 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed Yes | 20c | 2,358$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 39c | 2,348$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.47 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 20c | 2,333$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 2,300$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.83 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 31c | 2,234$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.4 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…0a87backed Yes | 13c | 2,154$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 27c | 2,112$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.23 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 28c | 2,111$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.08 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 27c | 2,087$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.36 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 42c | 2,058$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.33 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 19c | 2,038$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.13 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 11c | 2,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,959$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.61 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 20c | 1,888$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.07 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,864$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 19c | 1,807$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…ca6abacked Yes | 26c | 1,772$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 19c | 1,742$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 43c | 1,738$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.88 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…b493backed Yes | 23c | 1,720$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes | 62c | 1,650$1,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,018.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 19c | 1,620$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.92 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 22c | 1,616$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.68 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…f55dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,565$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,541$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 27c | 1,527$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.03 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 1,501$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.6 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 13c | 1,500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.35 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed No | 77c | 1,486$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.29 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 25c | 1,478$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.37 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 55c | 1,471$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.44 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…712bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,429$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,410$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.43 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 23c | 1,400$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,400$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 48c | 1,396$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.73 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…68acbacked Yes | 38c | 1,296$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.92 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,266$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 1,238$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed No | 45c | 1,224$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…0e21backed Yes | 37c | 1,224$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,224$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…83b1backed Yes | 29c | 1,218$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.94 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 1,204$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.79 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 63c | 1,199$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.11 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 27c | 1,193$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.92 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 23c | 1,182$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.86 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 19c | 1,181$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.06 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 19c | 1,177$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.65 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 18c | 1,152$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 21c | 1,129$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.63 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…07f1backed No | 80c | 1,120$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.95 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 25c | 1,062$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.85 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23d3…4ca5backed Yes | 20c | 1,046$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…2881backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…9389backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.