Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2404b96536eae44f1702008d8df01649b9d304ffa17d18b0ac338f4fa40ece37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $748,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $371,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $748,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17c9…4c2abacked Yes | 9c | 35,476$3,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,242.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 22,630$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.77 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 20,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 9c | 18,218$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.73 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 17,922$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.47 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 9c | 17,850$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.3 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 16c | 15,000$2,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.86 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 13,458$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.89 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 8c | 13,444$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.4 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 13c | 12,829$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.01 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 8c | 11,476$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.18 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 3c | 11,332$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.48 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 5c | 10,331$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.25 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 10,293$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 10c | 10,263$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.37 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 9c | 8,028$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.75 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x428a…5547backed Yes | 15c | 7,199$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,046.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 11c | 6,825$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.56 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 6,616$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.35 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 6,201$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.08 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.39 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 15c | 5,963$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.35 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 11c | 5,844$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.08 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 5,193$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.5 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…c45cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,032$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2575backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,862$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.98 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 9c | 4,665$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 4c | 4,553$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.55 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 6c | 4,092$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.25 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa3…eabebacked Yes | 1c | 4,084$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 12c | 4,016$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 19c | 3,605$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.86 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 7c | 3,450$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 3,428$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.56 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,324$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,315$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 3c | 3,313$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 9c | 3,297$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 13c | 3,294$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.24 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf592…73cabacked No | 80c | 3,288$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.53 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 3,272$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.16 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 10c | 3,262$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.41 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…d594backed Yes | 2c | 3,237$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 16c | 3,168$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.65 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 13c | 3,127$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.25 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 2,913$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.64 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f9…55f0backed Yes | 9c | 2,815$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…8e1abacked Yes | 7c | 2,668$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 5c | 2,622$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 2,617$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.29 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 5c | 2,569$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.44 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 2,560$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.9 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 12c | 2,517$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.44 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 9c | 2,443$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.44 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 15c | 2,386$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.07 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,368$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.65 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 1c | 2,194$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…0a87backed Yes | 4c | 2,094$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 2,012$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 1,986$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.04 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 10c | 1,845$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.54 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 10c | 1,549$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.06 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 12c | 1,529$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.52 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 13c | 1,505$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.85 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…9389backed Yes | 18c | 1,467$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.91 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f6…1e55backed Yes | 3c | 1,390$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ff…8f00backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 9c | 1,350$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.72 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 6c | 1,350$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,310$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532f…83ccbacked Yes | 22c | 1,300$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…e30fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,294$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344c…9b45backed Yes | 1c | 1,277$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3235…6e6cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,258$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.61 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed No | 71c | 1,246$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,235$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 9c | 1,225$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.25 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 5c | 1,225$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 8c | 1,219$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 1,217$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.64 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 4c | 1,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 78c | 1,197$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.37 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 9c | 1,173$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…68acbacked Yes | 12c | 1,159$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.91 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 1,147$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a8…d796backed Yes | 5c | 1,122$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,077$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 18c | 1,035$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…5c7bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,029$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 24c | 1,025$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…37aabacked Yes | 27c | 1,006$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.