Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd21f441784d09b5898d34e2ce33b4207e9337f7cbb12c595577ab89e44103f88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $358,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $358,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 0c | 28,758$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.26 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 14,953$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 0c | 11,608$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 11,099$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 1c | 9,752$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 1c | 7,437$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa68e…4b67backed Yes | 0c | 6,489$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,435$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.95 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,402$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 1c | 5,380$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 1c | 5,039$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 0c | 4,789$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 1c | 3,950$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bd…6a71backed Yes | 0c | 3,333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,247$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…b628backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 1c | 1,885$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee2…b942backed Yes | 1c | 1,825$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb819…6130backed Yes | 1c | 1,640$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,637$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,570$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,522$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 2c | 838.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132c…c285backed Yes | 3c | 666.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6232…8687backed Yes | 3c | 657$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 3c | 568.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 4c | 291.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.