Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e9d1edfcf107df4d7421c63d573d476e5e86a842ca2435e632ebe09a45a9d13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $477,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $226,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 77,777$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.78 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a52…c45cbacked Yes | 0c | 18,768$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…8876backed Yes | 0c | 15,921$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 3c | 14,025$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.32 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 3c | 13,186$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.09 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 1c | 10,701$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.29 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 5c | 9,792$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.21 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 7,500$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,000$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.63 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 1c | 5,224$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 10c | 5,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 9c | 4,969$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.22 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,441$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.93 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 0c | 4,205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,008$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.31 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes | 8c | 3,500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,371$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.75 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 14c | 3,228$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.29 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…e76abacked Yes | 8c | 3,222$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 3,044$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 11c | 2,908$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.95 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 4c | 2,748$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,685$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 12c | 2,364$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.64 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 2,360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 7c | 2,336$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 2c | 2,193$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…6257backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 1,995$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 11c | 1,950$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 1,720$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.59 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 6c | 1,569$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 2c | 1,216$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 1c | 1,214$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,100$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,017$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 100 | 16%16 W · 84 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 4c | 930.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 5c | 755.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 734.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…253ebacked Yes | 4c | 733.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 15c | 690.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 3c | 680.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 5c | 650$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 12c | 611.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 15c | 600.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 13c | 550$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 13c | 548.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 2c | 539.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 10c | 520$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…207bbacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 4c | 469.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…3f89backed Yes | 9c | 466.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 13c | 460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdee2…b942backed Yes | 4c | 450.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 7c | 445.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa417…34a3backed Yes | 3c | 439$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 12c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3976…eaa0backed Yes | 3c | 392$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 5c | 377.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 373.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 8c | 349.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 320$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 8c | 317$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 4c | 307.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 299.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 4c | 277.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba0e…9607backed Yes | 8c | 271.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 7c | 257.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…0597backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…68acbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 5c | 204$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 7c | 201$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…d8eebacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…c1d8backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 9c | 164.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…8263backed Yes | 9c | 155.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…f5cabacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…efb3backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc309…750ebacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.