Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f134c347ed53b7f36ac5de14ede2724a0eb47b9c1ba721d57d9ac52a615132c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $460,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $237,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $460,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 69,587$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 19,866$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.55 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 1c | 14,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 10c | 12,325$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.99 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 11,084$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.21 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 11c | 9,597$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.32 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 9,556$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.11 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 8,573$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.63 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 0c | 6,427$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 132 | 10.6%14 W · 118 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 1c | 4,970$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 6c | 4,731$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.74 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,216$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 11c | 3,772$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.89 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 1c | 3,652$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 0c | 3,624$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 8c | 3,416$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…df39backed Yes | 3c | 3,320$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 10c | 3,294$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.22 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 3,280$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.8 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked Yes | 11c | 3,200$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 11c | 3,064$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.82 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 9c | 3,000$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 6c | 2,797$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.11 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 6c | 2,688$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.29 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 16c | 2,294$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.52 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…e76abacked Yes | 15c | 2,219$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,171$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e3…6257backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afe…b9e5backed Yes | 13c | 1,943$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,912$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.85 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 16c | 1,802$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.5 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,800$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.1 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 12c | 1,789$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.16 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 3c | 1,682$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,646$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 17c | 1,600$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.12 | 461 | 11.3%52 W · 409 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,575$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 442 | 19.5%86 W · 356 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 14c | 1,456$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.76 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,387$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.93 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 1,360$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.74 | 2,576 | 13.2%339 W · 2,237 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…8876backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 3c | 1,315$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,269$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,249$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 17c | 1,212$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.05 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 10c | 1,111$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.62 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 15c | 1,030$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 7c | 995.97$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 11c | 950.22$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 12c | 930$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 124 | 12.1%15 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 17c | 902.72$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.62 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 9c | 800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 5c | 764.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 14c | 720$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…4074backed Yes | 14c | 700$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 6c | 693.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 3c | 668.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 11c | 646.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 11c | 619.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 16c | 613.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 7c | 610.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 14c | 600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 12c | 570$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 11c | 512.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes | 16c | 510$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 417 | 20.6%86 W · 331 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 18c | 504.75$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 6c | 500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 6c | 421.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 424 | 9.9%42 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 14c | 411$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 19c | 410.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 12c | 403.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 3c | 396$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 7c | 395.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 92 | 29.3%27 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 7c | 380$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…e30fbacked Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb1…0131backed Yes | 7c | 314.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…5cd7backed Yes | 19c | 309.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 9c | 275.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 736 | 15.2%112 W · 624 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 7c | 275$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…ce48backed Yes | 19c | 264.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c9…479ebacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…620bbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…68acbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 14c | 240$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.