Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5a58b3db0100e1b6268eafa0664e6a1a39772920efb2c767c06b003479aaa54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $566,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $579,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $566,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 411 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd985…37aabacked Yes | 76c | 17,045$12,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,093.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…4c2abacked Yes | 69c | 13,156$9,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,099.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf224…7532backed Yes | 19c | 12,160$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,903.87 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 71c | 10,322$7,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,035.99 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 8,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 19c | 8,111$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,604.63 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 39c | 8,000$3,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,844.55 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 7,517$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 53c | 6,825$3,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,210.48 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 41c | 6,795$2,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.28 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 55c | 6,674$3,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.21 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 15c | 5,500$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,664.98 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 18c | 5,450$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,454.05 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 26c | 5,002$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,681.02 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 50c | 4,416$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,215.65 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked Yes | 42c | 4,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdee2…b942backed No | 0c | 3,762$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 28c | 3,675$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.68 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 19c | 3,664$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,963.7 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 23c | 3,295$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.77 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 3,271$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,422.36 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 20c | 3,254$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.92 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 25c | 3,000$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.99 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 40c | 2,982$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,797.31 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 21c | 2,915$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.05 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 48c | 2,835$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.92 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 16c | 2,722$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.08 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…d58fbacked No | 3c | 2,640$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…8697backed No | 74c | 2,636$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d0…3b16backed Yes | 20c | 2,522$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.15 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 34c | 2,444$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.52 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 30c | 2,434$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.22 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 61c | 2,373$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.12 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 35c | 2,290$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,490.08 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,189$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.13 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 19c | 2,164$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.24 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 18c | 2,139$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.45 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,103$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.17 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 17cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 29c | 2,094$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,484.81 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 35c | 2,023$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.9 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,000$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 18c | 1,991$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.63 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 42c | 1,893$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,103.04 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,744$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.26 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 18c | 1,661$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.85 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 17c | 1,627$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.23 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 18c | 1,516$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.62 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 56c | 1,496$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.27 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 21c | 1,422$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,121.94 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 38c | 1,300$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.19 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 26c | 1,285$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.98 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 1,259$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.63 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked No | 59c | 1,248$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.02 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 16c | 1,242$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.42 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 32c | 1,240$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.69 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 1,223$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.02 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…13cdbacked Yes | 41c | 1,196$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.59 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 38c | 1,189$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.66 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 79c | 1,164$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 73c | 1,140$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 58c | 1,105$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.21 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,105$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.13 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 72c | 1,089$786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.65 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 25c | 1,075$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.57 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,062$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.87 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes | 23c | 1,021$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.52 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…32c2backed Yes | 19c | 999.55$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.43 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0223…34d1backed Yes | 21c | 944.48$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.14 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5426…68acbacked Yes | 46c | 920.35$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 37c | 902.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.29 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked Yes | 56c | 885.14$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.14 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 18c | 884$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.88 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…e30fbacked Yes | 35c | 856.29$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.29 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 39c | 847.63$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.34 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…8d71backed Yes | 32c | 820$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 40c | 809.74$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.98 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 30c | 808.07$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.48 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 57c | 802.7$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 14c | 800$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 772.35$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.95 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 29c | 771.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.47 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602f…20e1backed Yes | 31c | 770.32$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.76 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 36c | 754.6$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f4…dffdbacked Yes | 39c | 743.07$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.61 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 21c | 727.2$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.41 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3d…b13abacked No | 49c | 720$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…83b1backed Yes | 45c | 716.39$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.64 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…b493backed Yes | 39c | 697.26$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c6…a48ebacked Yes | 29c | 689.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.58 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 676.36$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.14 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed Yes | 24c | 638.6$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353c…0a87backed Yes | 45c | 633$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 28c | 632.82$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.97 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…620cbacked Yes | 48c | 622.61$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.78 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed No | 59c | 612.54$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.28 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…797cbacked Yes | 33c | 608.34$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.24 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 36c | 575$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.5 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…1e59backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…18e6backed Yes | 59c | 550.06$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.45 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.