Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bb6dbeee73acdf1f45ee29e34e89fbe14422a2fe185f39f8895bf636e8e15f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $538,341
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $247,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $538,341 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 53,750$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.7 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 31,976$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.41 | 796 | 6.5%52 W · 744 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 5c | 21,413$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.84 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 3c | 18,278$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 0c | 17,400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 5c | 15,204$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.31 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 3c | 10,273$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.82 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 9,686$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.52 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 8,712$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.3 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 2c | 7,922$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 0c | 6,825$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 6,551$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 4c | 5,435$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.82 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 3c | 5,112$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,718$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.66 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 4c | 4,533$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.63 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 1c | 4,433$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 4,165$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.7 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 3c | 3,499$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.32 | 122 | 13.9%17 W · 105 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,846$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 5c | 2,812$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 4c | 2,782$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.36 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,640$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 3c | 2,559$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 4c | 2,403$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 1c | 2,190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 2,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 6c | 2,026$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.21 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 1,389$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…79ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,317$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1afb…e524backed Yes | 5c | 1,129$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +540.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d62…5edebacked Yes | 2c | 1,054$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 4c | 959.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…340bbacked Yes | 4c | 942.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 880$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6db…b117backed Yes | 2c | 872.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…14b5backed Yes | 5c | 870.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 5c | 823.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…3f89backed Yes | 7c | 821.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 4c | 753.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcc…b0a2backed Yes | 6c | 680$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 3c | 654.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 2c | 643$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…df77backed Yes | 4c | 614$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 3c | 613.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…699fbacked Yes | 5c | 611.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 4c | 610$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc6…949abacked Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 4c | 597.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 4c | 550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 6c | 526.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…7d15backed Yes | 3c | 508$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 482.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d0…a1a0backed Yes | 4c | 444.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 4c | 397.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb93f…f000backed Yes | 4c | 389.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f92…9a23backed Yes | 6c | 320.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 308.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 7c | 304.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b67…b539backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…5d0ebacked Yes | 5c | 294$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…cde7backed Yes | 4c | 280.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 4c | 279.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 277.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e18…5a00backed Yes | 5c | 274$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9745…e3d1backed Yes | 4c | 262$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f8…a80abacked Yes | 4c | 254.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5941…df44backed Yes | 6c | 252.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…7207backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 6c | 169.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times July 18–25?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 18–25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.