Us Politics · resolved market
Trump Mobile smartphone released before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3aa07c15c0d1e6b79af43aebe3147355274d9382df7b277be51574e8709feb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed Yes | 7c | 4,320$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.98 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 9c | 2,943$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.03 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 1,366$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,336$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72cd…021fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,299$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 9c | 1,147$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.95 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 10c | 1,009$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.88 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…8bc8backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…8c4dbacked Yes | 9c | 999.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed Yes | 3c | 994.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 971.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 10c | 600$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 10c | 520$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…90b0backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc1…95abbacked Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 5c | 425.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes | 5c | 416.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 392.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffa…562ebacked Yes | 3c | 381.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb18…d29abacked Yes | 4c | 354.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…c040backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…f05cbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 144$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dde1backed Yes | 11c | 127.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 127$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9e…1256backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…a62abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa053…7502backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…c971backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fe…ad4cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.