TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Pavlovich vs. Rozenstruik

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pavlovichof Pavlovich, Rozenstruik
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,033
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,033 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xace4…bd19backed Pavlovich73c6,894$5,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.213959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Rozenstruik27c5,641$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.1735253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Rozenstruik30c3,100$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a12…01cebacked Pavlovich70c2,839$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.781457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x646b…5112backed Rozenstruik2c2,500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.672540%10 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rozenstruik30c2,293$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.7733253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Rozenstruik27c1,778$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.9110149.5%50 W · 51 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Pavlovich70c1,661$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.7739959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Pavlovich74c1,400$1,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.6313044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d70…9a6fbacked Pavlovich73c1,165$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00f…711abacked Rozenstruik29c1,050$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.42157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3208…6bedbacked Pavlovich74c1,014$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick64cpaid-77.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Pavlovich69c1,010$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.118560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed Rozenstruik2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Rozenstruik27c999.98$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Rozenstruik27c999.93$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9819531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Pavlovich73c957.95$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.955265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Rozenstruik29c915.26$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.428060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed Rozenstruik26c854.15$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.483357.6%19 W · 14 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+42.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Pavlovich78c804.63$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.327646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa1…12e5backed Rozenstruik4c723.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4537…ae6cbacked Pavlovich70c714.83$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Pavlovich69c577.65$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7821554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Rozenstruik27c519.29$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.3414751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Rozenstruik19c516.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010529.5%31 W · 74 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04a…824ebacked Rozenstruik31c507.1$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1571315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Rozenstruik27c499.98$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13522144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Pavlovich70c428.57$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.5735664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Pavlovich73c376.01$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0122753.3%121 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Rozenstruik28c364.63$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4614355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Rozenstruik30c334.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014130.5%43 W · 98 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7556…f7e4backed Rozenstruik28c328.55$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7a6…a5e5backed Rozenstruik28c324.17$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Pavlovich69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9336745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd94…0b01backed Rozenstruik26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786946.4%32 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Rozenstruik25c299.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+80.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Pavlovich71c289.97$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8948749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Pavlovich73c273.97$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.979241.3%38 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed Pavlovich75c267.45$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.93887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick63cpaid+32.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4254…e52fbacked Pavlovich73c261.66$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f1…8d27backed Rozenstruik28c256.32$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdab6…92d0backed Rozenstruik28c251.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Pavlovich69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Rozenstruik27c231.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.62626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-52.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7c54…82babacked Pavlovich73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.488757.5%50 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Pavlovich73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Rozenstruik28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Pavlovich71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.8977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Pavlovich72c189.98$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6456450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d0f…a318backed Rozenstruik28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Pavlovich71c174.51$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.61944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Rozenstruik29c172.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03d1…f0a3backed Pavlovich73c167.11$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91ef…03efbacked Pavlovich74c163.51$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.514100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked Rozenstruik27c147.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.831855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+28.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa696…90b9backed Pavlovich70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63aa…a9ccbacked Pavlovich70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.86977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+59.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc64…fc2bbacked Pavlovich73c139.73$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.738752.9%46 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b9d…2461backed Pavlovich75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.332556%14 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Rozenstruik19c129.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Pavlovich74c121.62$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.628851.1%45 W · 43 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73d5…ddebbacked Pavlovich75c116.71$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc01a…879abacked Rozenstruik27c114.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Rozenstruik11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Pavlovich69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe327…ec05backed Pavlovich70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed Rozenstruik29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Rozenstruik30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3052252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed Pavlovich73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275547.3%26 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefca…bf2dbacked Pavlovich73c96.3$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Pavlovich73c85.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237233.3%24 W · 48 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Pavlovich78c83.57$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221b…5125backed Pavlovich75c82.4$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe22e…039fbacked Pavlovich73c82.19$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.191070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+29.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Pavlovich74c81.96$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3113465.7%88 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeef1…16bebacked Pavlovich73c81.78$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.08875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+50.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ff2…2602backed Pavlovich74c80$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.86336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6358…71c2backed Pavlovich70c78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed Rozenstruik33c75.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…49b4backed Pavlovich70c71.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.434548.9%22 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Pavlovich73c69.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.694047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9528…8c40backed Pavlovich73c69.08$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41e…f01fbacked Pavlovich73c67.97$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…49b2backed Pavlovich73c67.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.291145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15bc…0fd1backed Pavlovich74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b54…4f17backed Pavlovich74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb9…1e95backed Pavlovich73c66.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9955…4acebacked Pavlovich73c63.56$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.372268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa0e…3c10backed Pavlovich73c63.41$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06d0…254fbacked Pavlovich73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.24161%25 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba72…1d47backed Pavlovich73c58.82$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3f8…3ef8backed Rozenstruik28c55.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc00…122dbacked Pavlovich72c55.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41c…c9b3backed Pavlovich73c55.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.919737.1%36 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x652c…3ea0backed Pavlovich75c53.53$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.53771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c35…6879backed Rozenstruik27c53.03$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…f95ebacked Rozenstruik31c52.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.275347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73c5…68a5backed Rozenstruik27c51.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57b9…7726backed Pavlovich71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5156.7%1 W · 14 L-7.4wins-0.49per pick56cpaid-90.6%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x43e4…fd34backed Pavlovich74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.