UFC · resolved market
Nurmagomedov vs. Oliveira
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe00f130e9815dfc5d2bbb01bdc8ee019c74bf8d55ac30c806e1743e54140c317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oliveiraof Nurmagomedov, Oliveira
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5cc1…1058backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 14,890$9,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,968 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…d18bbacked Oliveira | 35c | 8,923$3,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,775.31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Oliveira | 33c | 5,591$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,766.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef38…ae8cbacked Nurmagomedov | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.96 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Oliveira | 33c | 2,347$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.32 | 101 | 49.5%50 W · 51 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Oliveira | 32c | 2,075$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.02 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 2,017$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Oliveira | 31c | 1,688$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.79 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Oliveira | 35c | 1,447$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.77 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…d67dbacked Oliveira | 34c | 1,399$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.93 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Oliveira | 41c | 1,360$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.2 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Oliveira | 37c | 1,309$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.22 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…bdf5backed Oliveira | 30c | 1,170$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Nurmagomedov | 68c | 1,166$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.91 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb71a…6fc9backed Nurmagomedov | 62c | 1,070$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nurmagomedov | 69c | 1,001$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.89 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Oliveira | 37c | 991.05$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.36 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Oliveira | 35c | 890.77$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Nurmagomedov | 70c | 886.38$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.31 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00c9…62babacked Nurmagomedov | 66c | 840.65$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…59eabacked Nurmagomedov | 67c | 747$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.49 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Nurmagomedov | 63c | 672$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.36 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed Oliveira | 32c | 635.29$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.79 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Oliveira | 36c | 609.69$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.01 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Oliveira | 34c | 600$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Oliveira | 40c | 585.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.01 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Oliveira | 34c | 548.56$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.05 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…6bedbacked Nurmagomedov | 67c | 522.39$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 64cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Oliveira | 34c | 500$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Nurmagomedov | 65c | 485.89$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.83 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 355 | 64.5%229 W · 126 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Oliveira | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646b…5112backed Oliveira | 33c | 401.65$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed Nurmagomedov | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Nurmagomedov | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Nurmagomedov | 68c | 362.37$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Nurmagomedov | 62c | 358$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.55 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 328$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Oliveira | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 140 | 45.7%64 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked Nurmagomedov | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 252 | 51.2%129 W · 123 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…95fbbacked Nurmagomedov | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -7.4wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe327…ec05backed Nurmagomedov | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Oliveira | 35c | 300$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 299$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.33 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Nurmagomedov | 61c | 281.47$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.77 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Oliveira | 40c | 269.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe545…a68cbacked Oliveira | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Nurmagomedov | 61c | 247.5$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…53c7backed Oliveira | 32c | 215.03$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.22 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…1dd2backed Oliveira | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Nurmagomedov | 62c | 179.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e3…83d2backed Oliveira | 39c | 153.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 35cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Oliveira | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4506…3dd1backed Oliveira | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…2683backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 142.04$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Nurmagomedov | 60c | 140$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…63eebacked Oliveira | 38c | 133.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 131.41$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Oliveira | 36c | 129.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…b9c9backed Nurmagomedov | 60c | 101$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Oliveira | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Nurmagomedov | 70c | 86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Nurmagomedov | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Oliveira | 38c | 74.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…e03abacked Nurmagomedov | 69c | 73.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dce…ffa2backed Nurmagomedov | 64c | 70.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Nurmagomedov | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff2…2602backed Oliveira | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Oliveira | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed Oliveira | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…4260backed Nurmagomedov | 64c | 55.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1e…5a53backed Nurmagomedov | 61c | 51.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed Oliveira | 33c | 50.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Nurmagomedov | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -7.4wins | -0.49per pick | 56cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…c0cdbacked Nurmagomedov | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…c9b3backed Oliveira | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Oliveira | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…f179backed Oliveira | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Oliveira | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60dd…4df2backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…d27bbacked Nurmagomedov | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 151 | 39.7%60 W · 91 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6d…a887backed Nurmagomedov | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…d121backed Nurmagomedov | 61c | 49.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7929…cb49backed Nurmagomedov | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff8b…8578backed Nurmagomedov | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Oliveira | 38c | 46.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 263 | 52.1%137 W · 126 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Nurmagomedov | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Nurmagomedov | 69c | 43.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…5183backed Nurmagomedov | 62c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Oliveira | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Nurmagomedov | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Nurmagomedov | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 520 | 52.9%275 W · 245 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477b…27debacked Nurmagomedov | 63c | 38.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…2bb1backed Nurmagomedov | 64c | 36.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…bc19backed Nurmagomedov | 64c | 36.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…2272backed Oliveira | 38c | 32.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Nurmagomedov | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…2810backed Nurmagomedov | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652c…3ea0backed Nurmagomedov | 64c | 31.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e57…5550backed Nurmagomedov | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nurmagomedov vs. Oliveirathis page
- Adesanya vs. ImavovImavov won
- Magomedov vs. PagePage won
- Naimov vs. OfliNaimov won
- Pavlovich vs. RozenstruikPavlovich won
- Ziam vs. DavisZiam won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.