Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcf2b4dd27cbf8374209e46a0d7726359e29c237c77eeb2d03845ea7702510b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,363,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,310,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,363,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 561 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 10c | 483,024$49,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,722.35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 74c | 191,251$142,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,101.74 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 24c | 160,922$38,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,741.58 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 25c | 104,548$26,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,536.83 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed Yes | 27c | 93,034$25,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,354.05 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6728…c796backed Yes | 7c | 70,641$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 17c | 70,365$11,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,870.56 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 23c | 53,887$12,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,128.33 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 20c | 48,934$9,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,764.86 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked No | 77c | 40,563$31,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,305.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 23c | 39,513$9,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,098.08 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 21c | 39,171$8,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,246.01 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 17c | 36,934$6,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,118.25 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 73c | 33,684$24,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,089.1 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…2493backed Yes | 21c | 32,655$6,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,729.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 19c | 32,000$6,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,079.98 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 4c | 30,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e28…dc83backed Yes | 11c | 28,738$3,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.56 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 9c | 26,709$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.75 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 24,320$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.7 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 75c | 22,800$17,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,754.76 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 24c | 20,482$4,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,885.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037a…c53ebacked No | 79c | 20,217$16,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,191.45 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 13c | 19,087$2,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,420.03 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 70c | 19,046$13,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,725.68 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 22c | 18,379$4,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,086.56 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 78c | 17,061$13,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,757.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 26c | 16,103$4,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,220.69 | 81 | 37%30 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed No | 73c | 15,317$11,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,184.43 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 26c | 14,168$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.27 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 15c | 14,000$2,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044.92 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 13c | 13,322$1,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.22 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32a4…3956backed No | 77c | 11,628$8,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,645.73 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 12c | 11,184$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.25 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 73c | 10,208$7,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,732.19 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac9…155abacked Yes | 2c | 10,184$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 78c | 10,169$7,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11b…cf6bbacked Yes | 26c | 9,534$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3378…f722backed No | 77c | 9,192$7,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…fb6fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,171$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…e4bbbacked Yes | 2c | 9,157$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…f14bbacked No | 77c | 9,092$7,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.23 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,893$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 22c | 7,857$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.61 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 7,232$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.82 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 36c | 7,227$2,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,578.7 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed No | 80c | 7,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…74d6backed No | 79c | 6,946$5,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,446.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 6c | 6,904$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.31 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes | 13c | 6,850$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 14c | 6,697$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.45 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 27c | 6,363$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.65 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed No | 80c | 6,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked No | 77c | 5,916$4,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…a3d2backed No | 77c | 5,900$4,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 49cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf70f…3c97backed No | 74c | 5,793$4,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…3a00backed No | 68c | 5,653$3,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.11 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f3…76fbbacked No | 71c | 5,489$3,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 24c | 5,262$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.34 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 5,200$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 5,067$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 4,937$3,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.09 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 4,737$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.3 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 75c | 4,684$3,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.31 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 76c | 4,605$3,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.74 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked No | 72c | 4,080$2,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.4 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed No | 78c | 4,068$3,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.94 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed No | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…08ffbacked Yes | 12c | 3,975$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.65 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 4c | 3,876$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 11c | 3,768$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.84 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 37c | 3,714$1,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.04 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c17…83c8backed Yes | 23c | 3,680$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,628$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.88 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 1c | 3,462$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 21c | 3,450$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.85 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 76c | 3,363$2,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.12 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 6c | 3,237$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.4 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 4c | 3,198$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.67 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 20c | 3,186$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.69 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 4c | 3,118$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6059…2f6ebacked Yes | 16c | 3,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…203cbacked No | 79c | 3,000$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be0…0154backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 3c | 2,822$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d7…5b7bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,805$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.51 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,626$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.87 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 21c | 2,624$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.33 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdf…38c9backed No | 77c | 2,622$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 73cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 27c | 2,566$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 111 | 36.9%41 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42c…aaddbacked Yes | 6c | 2,538$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,500$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked No | 77c | 2,500$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…fb9ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 7c | 2,450$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.43 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.