TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$498,549
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$546,398

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $498,549 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes79c57,044$45,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,765.357751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…4710backed Yes80c31,067$24,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,364.07742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab3d…4266backed No62c17,292$10,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,727.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…f91ebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes47c8,773$4,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,619.1712138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7379…79f0backed No24c8,262$2,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,008.15650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed No24c7,976$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.248056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f1c…1cedbacked No33c6,635$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4ff…4d3dbacked No52c6,394$3,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes58c6,279$3,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.424835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fd…829ebacked No3c5,500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes59c5,423$3,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,239.793823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb753…f859backed Yes61c5,416$3,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.232536%9 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed No6c4,843$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.2521926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0260…72e3backed No6c4,742$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-75.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bc7…89adbacked No0c4,635$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x515a…269abacked No25c4,229$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.01425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-60.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb192…cc5cbacked No35c4,059$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff18…d073backed No33c4,039$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,319.612147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67db…bd86backed No66c4,036$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes68c4,013$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.345952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes50c3,980$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.7156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c3,883$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.474769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49f3…76fbbacked Yes59c3,802$2,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.732634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes71c3,682$2,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,075.557940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…fe65backed Yes44c3,485$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,943.121910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2348…9ee0backed No11c3,478$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes64c3,374$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.311060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c3,099$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.561,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes78c2,659$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.823135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xba33…5e4fbacked No58c2,604$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No2c2,555$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x196e…e2ecbacked Yes32c2,474$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.211631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0e9…c21ebacked No28c2,468$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6951855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No18c2,363$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.283458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes64c2,342$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.4240828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes29c2,341$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.749217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x666e…aa2dbacked No43c2,300$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+121.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0454…859ebacked No42c2,291$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.321338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes38c2,126$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.262236.4%8 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94ec…a1f8backed No5c2,125$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0372…a86bbacked No35c2,110$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.2780%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No12c2,105$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.822240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No30c2,000$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.158749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No25c2,000$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.120749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec2…cb66backed No41c1,953$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+104.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes51c1,946$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.4626423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked No30c1,875$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes34c1,851$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.9734440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…adf8backed Yes73c1,850$1,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.794938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed Yes77c1,764$1,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.266546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes54c1,698$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.125913.6%8 W · 51 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-59.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked No9c1,677$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.149920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4fd…c893backed No2c1,611$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa606…420fbacked No19c1,605$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.331040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No12c1,604$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.685330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed No70c1,568$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.711241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick54cpaid+35%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf92c…60e7backed No20c1,567$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.51526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87c3…2945backed No50c1,558$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.63966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b10…fcebbacked No23c1,520$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No20c1,500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f58…5ff2backed Yes80c1,474$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.86944.9%31 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No68c1,471$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked No34c1,463$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No29c1,460$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.597335.6%26 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked No30c1,455$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.1917934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No25c1,435$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.041942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc158…f3cabacked No71c1,415$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes34c1,410$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.4628943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8403…5c98backed No11c1,408$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.32466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No43c1,355$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.813732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dd…c8a5backed No32c1,326$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.54837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a26…a80fbacked No26c1,296$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.131250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a83…b4dcbacked Yes72c1,244$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc4b…75b3backed No31c1,238$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…c072backed No29c1,208$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes66c1,200$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4083534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No19c1,200$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2268250%41 W · 41 L+10.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x72ae…3808backed No43c1,164$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e5…5bb5backed No30c1,145$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.22433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Yes74c1,120$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.81154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes66c1,111$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.628641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No25c1,100$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.631649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No32c1,088$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.6817929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes71c1,038$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.048739.1%34 W · 53 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac1…1316backed No39c1,029$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes40c1,024$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.586141%25 W · 36 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0db7…c901backed Yes72c1,023$732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.131250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39ff…d637backed No36c1,021$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3703847.4%18 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No13c1,000$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8315331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x820b…f7f4backed No27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c999.97$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.9964339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes59c980.98$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.8913360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes47c969.58$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.1648923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes22c915.61$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.189535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34a…6007backed Yes78c912.13$708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2421160.7%128 W · 83 L+14.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb9f…7c54backed Yes32c884.74$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.41862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+51.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes41c883.69$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.3820549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No8c883.64$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5610861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xfcd9…aebdbacked No26c878.36$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.