Weather · resolved market
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450958f3aa22e9abf4bb1099cfc33dad530a8b62d68152de135f8f36284a1a1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 10c | 9,032$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 36c | 6,481$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,161.48 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 77c | 6,376$4,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 64c | 5,924$3,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,803.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 52c | 2,302$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +450.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 36c | 1,599$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.1 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 43c | 1,449$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.3 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 36c | 1,391$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.38 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 62c | 1,336$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.34 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked No | 60c | 1,221$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 47c | 1,130$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 12c | 1,018$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +282.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…4392backed No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 34c | 896.98$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 65c | 893.53$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 25c | 877.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5858…7b42backed No | 61c | 814.79$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…3819backed Yes | 53c | 800$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 35c | 799.98$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed No | 64c | 781.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5c…0b1abacked No | 67c | 745.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…c280backed No | 57c | 668.01$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 63c | 631.15$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 78c | 628.99$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.34 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 35c | 604.98$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.84 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 38c | 573.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked No | 67c | 540.95$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…bf44backed Yes | 34c | 512.49$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3aa…bddcbacked Yes | 38c | 476$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…baf2backed No | 66c | 414.41$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0a90backed No | 63c | 351.45$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 38c | 349.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +297%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 61c | 325.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…023abacked No | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed Yes | 38c | 299.98$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 34c | 299.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.98 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…89ddbacked No | 65c | 227.91$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…9563backed Yes | 44c | 218.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 66c | 215.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 200.1$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fda…2988backed Yes | 46c | 191.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked No | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked No | 66c | 158.33$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 56c | 156$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked No | 65c | 154.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 45c | 153$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f71…a368backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 34c | 148$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5070…911fbacked No | 62c | 145.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…9a00backed No | 55c | 144.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 63c | 142$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes | 35c | 137.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 55c | 128.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 11c | 118.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 36c | 117.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c3…2945backed No | 64c | 110$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2477…207cbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…0155backed No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 61c | 81.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…1a7cbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…8f6abacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 60c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 36c | 75.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +222.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…a313backed No | 65c | 75.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked No | 45c | 75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…79e6backed No | 66c | 64.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 62c | 60.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f00…7e3cbacked Yes | 33c | 59.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6e…5c9dbacked No | 60c | 58.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 35c | 58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…7f23backed No | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…8accbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6220…81cebacked Yes | 38c | 52.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…f34abacked No | 68c | 51.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…9e5ebacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…34b0backed No | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b91…f8e7backed Yes | 41c | 48.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…e247backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…d8d1backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…936ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fb…04e7backed No | 67c | 31.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…18ddbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda23…080ebacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.