TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Udachne by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,904
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$88,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,904 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xab4f…552fbacked No36c4,068$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.7212547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes55c3,451$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,560.812123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,669$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.955327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes69c2,500$1,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$772.043148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked No42c2,159$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.665461.1%33 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No44c2,110$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9263565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No10c2,069$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1715855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes69c1,882$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.3925528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No32c1,871$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.986540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes59c1,800$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.9911050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked No23c1,783$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.5412830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed No20c1,728$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.734358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No36c1,654$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58814147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes62c1,600$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.5415125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…287cbacked Yes63c1,577$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.111225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fcb…36f0backed No39c1,527$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Yes49c1,429$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7301643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes80c1,405$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.154060%24 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No57c1,360$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.554553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a03…b226backed No53c1,314$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6991457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+66.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes62c1,293$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.216450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No20c1,247$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.0214920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7540…0d08backed Yes42c1,180$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.32634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-26.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No27c1,147$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.310241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d41…271abacked Yes60c1,091$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.06825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes63c1,077$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.076639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf639…d967backed No53c941.96$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006650%33 W · 33 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes56c888.21$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.613429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ad…92abbacked Yes58c865.17$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.171844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9188…f4efbacked Yes34c815.91$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.641540%6 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed No37c710.74$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1613622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No22c700$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15515217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70e0…0edcbacked Yes58c689.72$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.72742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeec…aa69backed Yes45c665.5$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.822142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No33c662.11$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.38660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes56c599.99$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2667736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes59c598.27$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.6714355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No31c592.01$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.7424258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No16c554$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.649360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac42…d9f9backed Yes73c529.73$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No19c525$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.751020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked Yes72c499.99$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1402142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No20c499.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+101.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No38c494.3$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.758355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes41c485.54$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.475541.8%23 W · 32 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf92a…a517backed No66c484.1$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.691258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked No20c441.43$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.794839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcde0…267dbacked No24c420.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003342.4%14 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-34.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes44c410$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.76639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd8d5…41edbacked Yes74c405.37$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-73%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes55c391.51$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.662722.2%6 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9708…e1a0backed Yes55c364.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.85757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…e2a9backed Yes65c357.13$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.041338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes48c350$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.56930.4%21 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No64c333$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.123683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes47c332$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.9626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No16c311.59$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No37c303.24$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.612259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d02…b35cbacked No20c302.11$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed Yes71c285.09$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.085479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7a9…af0dbacked Yes50c272.04$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No60c270$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.326835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No38c265.61$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.942931%9 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No22c261.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0417122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c10…336cbacked No19c261.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69cc…cf1fbacked Yes58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.62425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No39c250$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.612937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No53c250$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.51625%4 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes34c250$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1642642.3%11 W · 15 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+26.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33de…df3fbacked No40c248.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No25c248.46$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9120026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No41c241.11$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x338e…3267backed No18c240.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b5…9975backed No53c233.39$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.044163.4%26 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790c…033cbacked No36c230$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked Yes61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6ca2…134fbacked No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed No41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No20c199.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010651.9%55 W · 51 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes47c199.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1068045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes58c199.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.995352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c175.61$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4e2…1546backed No59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6874…5a96backed No65c161$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No39c153$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.521353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e09…0646backed No18c152.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.54261.9%26 W · 16 L+8.1wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+50.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x730a…3e59backed Yes66c150$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.551346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4222…8aa7backed Yes67c150$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.52347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x557a…413abacked No54c148.15$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801060%6 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No19c148$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3626318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfab4…4c19backed Yes63c144.3$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.391250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43a1…2425backed No33c140.71$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.844725.5%12 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-35.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed Yes79c139.38$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.275461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked No17c138.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.12751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3922…971bbacked No45c133.56$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No33c130$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.83060%18 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+38.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No15c128.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6625311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27db…5897backed No40c125$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.