TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$471,024
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$467,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $471,024 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd44e…67e2backed No51c20,096$10,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,758.6114456.9%82 W · 62 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed No33c19,231$6,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,979.912326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes55c18,387$10,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,102.285143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No38c14,389$5,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,858.9212547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes44c14,314$6,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,363.6113230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes50c13,257$6,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,617.062123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No44c13,000$5,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,333.1823435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813a…acb1backed Yes53c12,548$6,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,639.593016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No61c10,770$6,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,244.1735341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No46c10,631$4,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,762.292347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes72c10,366$7,487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,486.924060%24 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No44c10,259$4,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,777.754450%22 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes63c9,130$5,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,749.2915125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes17c8,558$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.5525311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fce…33f8backed Yes49c8,336$4,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,100.091822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-6.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No42c8,211$3,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,725.4311050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No39c7,147$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,358.854841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No49c7,040$3,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,556.814147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes58c6,988$4,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,082.3724258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f65…2971backed Yes5c6,672$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No26c6,218$1,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,631.764146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Yes57c5,764$3,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,260.081643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No44c5,451$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,038.749962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x72ae…3808backed Yes50c5,384$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7101346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-28.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x167f…1f51backed Yes58c5,254$3,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.21633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No35c5,179$1,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,372.526238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No40c5,102$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,050.233565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Yes21c4,980$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes7c4,454$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.692462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed No34c4,200$1,408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.526540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes36c4,155$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.225528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…287cbacked Yes72c4,150$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-61.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed No37c4,012$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,511.56887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+48.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No56c3,715$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.762552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No43c3,711$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,111.0610241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x723a…d86dbacked Yes48c3,244$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,562.8248.3%2 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick22cpaid+11%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No40c2,875$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.2414920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes43c2,546$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.6713429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed No47c2,525$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,337.118549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No72c2,269$1,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.8811040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No48c2,156$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.479360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes63c1,977$1,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,245.434010%4 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes40c1,860$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.13148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7487…fc0cbacked No60c1,839$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.334839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked No35c1,819$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.038045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd34f…3b09backed Yes60c1,817$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.051323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc875…02bdbacked Yes64c1,805$1,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1531040%4 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74ad…92abbacked No74c1,745$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.081844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…3e65backed No37c1,730$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.073256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,708$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.845327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes42c1,685$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.2512830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No59c1,646$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.81872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No56c1,640$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.458660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes35c1,616$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.415029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2731…2928backed Yes71c1,533$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.071540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No65c1,528$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.343560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5102475%18 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No39c1,479$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.4715217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes58c1,450$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.244358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No28c1,447$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.3612937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb491…c600backed Yes69c1,441$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc894…b9f6backed Yes40c1,323$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.192240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c0…a91fbacked Yes35c1,282$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.021020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x017d…1290backed Yes66c1,258$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.372661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes74c1,254$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No51c1,250$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.483658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+41.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc481…471fbacked Yes71c1,202$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.731428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd576…ca8dbacked No74c1,202$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.692766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No40c1,157$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.934757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x991d…a035backed No73c1,149$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes41c1,137$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.7239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2abc…8163backed Yes47c1,111$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.17837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes35c1,110$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3887727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes56c1,084$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.274247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed No47c1,065$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.625461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fdb…6919backed Yes67c1,033$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.19933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x351f…1761backed Yes61c1,011$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.6130%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x81a6…762ebacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb90…f2cdbacked No26c1,000$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7402100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+173%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked No64c954$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.545461.1%33 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67f…70febacked Yes55c941.53$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.081233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dd…7c86backed Yes43c930.68$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+44.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No64c926.09$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.893756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e4…bac0backed No27c920.79$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes58c912.29$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.3911542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbac…b9bebacked Yes60c898.32$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+119.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x27db…e863backed Yes52c858.2$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.016450%32 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbceb…4266backed Yes59c839.37$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+59.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x288c…deedbacked Yes67c830.87$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+270.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No20c825.98$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.4611647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a0…f233backed Yes44c818.68$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.67224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-86.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No77c816.67$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.835464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…cc64backed No53c810.61$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.992352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes75c800.07$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes43c798.72$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.916639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed No52c789.34$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.881080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a61…2c6bbacked Yes63c787.96$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.686930.4%21 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes59c780$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.74040%16 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No46c776.21$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.216357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8572…63ccbacked Yes64c772.62$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.931752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.