Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa213729f8d884142499847f751e097828142fddb406c7d35f0d2ab193c09f79a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 12,335$9,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.73 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 16c | 5,877$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.41 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…9abdbacked Yes | 18c | 4,910$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 19c | 4,674$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.72 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 12c | 4,274$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.13 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 75c | 3,340$2,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,600$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 70c | 2,092$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.72 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 21c | 1,531$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.96 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 22c | 1,371$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 13c | 1,302$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.54 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…954cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,298$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 1,212$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.35 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,014$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b5…a1f2backed Yes | 25c | 1,012$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…bb14backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 31c | 969.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 77c | 967.74$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.45 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 76c | 904.22$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.56 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 27c | 721.77$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.72 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 16c | 719.24$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.26 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…f3eebacked Yes | 18c | 700.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 73c | 700.1$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.02 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 30c | 662.6$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.95 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 32c | 623.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 12c | 597.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…a86dbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 32c | 550$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f4…5e12backed Yes | 21c | 539.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…88cabacked No | 72c | 538.19$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.09 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f17…3d01backed Yes | 25c | 530.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 514.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 79c | 456.39$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 22c | 452.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 38c | 426.4$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 40c | 422.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 72c | 417.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.56 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 412.87$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 77c | 408.26$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 67c | 393.41$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 77c | 378.6$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1800…3005backed No | 77c | 378.43$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 19c | 370$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 67c | 356.67$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.46 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 17c | 348.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 26c | 300.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.03 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 23c | 299.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 14c | 294.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.23 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 284.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6d…723abacked Yes | 35c | 282.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +143%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…bc64backed No | 75c | 268.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…330ebacked Yes | 35c | 230.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 25c | 219.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 22c | 212.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 20c | 204.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d2…45b5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f49…7458backed No | 77c | 195.39$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…c89ebacked Yes | 20c | 186.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 19c | 184.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…b13abacked Yes | 22c | 175.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba7d…eb40backed No | 78c | 175.82$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…19b4backed Yes | 26c | 169.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 19c | 160.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 36c | 159.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6a…2dd7backed Yes | 19c | 157.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 21c | 144.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…a86bbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…a98fbacked No | 66c | 130.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 65c | 129.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 63c | 129.23$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…dfb5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 124.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…d7b8backed No | 80c | 124.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked No | 69c | 118.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfac1…ba7fbacked Yes | 32c | 118.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a91…d490backed Yes | 31c | 114.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Yes | 9c | 107.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd38e…3b9abacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 62c | 98.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 19c | 94.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 25c | 92.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…8805backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc2…8c7fbacked No | 77c | 76.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x981a…9108backed Yes | 25c | 72.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.