TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another Israel strike on Yemen by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$199,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,575 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3164…3033backed No62c26,538$16,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,217.288056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cbf…4665backed No70c22,826$16,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,759.936546.2%30 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes50c12,688$6,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,352.437032.9%23 W · 47 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No50c11,006$5,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,449.079154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes28c9,509$2,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,663.293336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffb6…e64bbacked Yes5c8,512$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.011921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-39.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1854…81eabacked Yes45c8,000$3,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,576.061650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+107%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9aa3…f82dbacked Yes54c6,144$3,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,314.03540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c5,245$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.082078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes41c4,883$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.77940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes32c4,150$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.785812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce8f…4400backed No60c4,000$2,398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.242458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No66c4,000$2,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.1713746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed No61c3,860$2,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.8133337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes5c3,799$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.973619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcda1…d9adbacked No60c3,440$2,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,383.166637.9%25 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc085…82fabacked Yes46c3,301$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.96929%20 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee07…0647backed Yes20c3,135$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.212035%7 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2618…0a87backed Yes53c2,856$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e85…8414backed Yes23c2,613$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bae…3a9bbacked Yes20c2,515$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0301…aa15backed Yes51c2,266$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.832832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b5…4025backed No67c2,200$1,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.093100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes5c2,070$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes3c2,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes16c1,739$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.7612138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes6c1,673$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb678…3913backed Yes21c1,660$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.442751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes30c1,645$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.83745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a26…a80fbacked No57c1,559$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.521250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No69c1,400$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.8764339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No57c1,300$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.991643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-34.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes17c1,142$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5713518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3830…8c68backed Yes9c1,133$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-56.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddc0…3a00backed No55c1,040$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.882548%12 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes9c1,005$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.291235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Yes15c999.97$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.993520%7 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf75…29c6backed Yes20c999.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.994355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7c…757fbacked Yes66c960.09$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c847.75$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.0277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No55c775.24$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.8619930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes27c774.47$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.8217347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes40c724.54$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.5148630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cee…f962backed Yes39c700$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa271…8e97backed Yes48c696.32$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.23742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a85…fe9dbacked Yes47c680$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.483823.7%9 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes13c650$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.516739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes7c640.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5519829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed No80c633.42$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.682661.5%16 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…fd50backed Yes4c602.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.96837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes33c528.47$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.259846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No41c513.04$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.3513360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1d42…1db0backed Yes14c505.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70875%6 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+72.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf52f…c3f1backed Yes25c487.54$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes34c474$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.874045%18 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes33c470.27$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.515332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes38c470$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.756336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed No45c469.12$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.713237.5%12 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea48…2c08backed Yes37c457.12$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcab…4821backed No62c436.27$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.32934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes59c434.97$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.597323.3%17 W · 56 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes48c426.44$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.469642.7%41 W · 55 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b7e…79e5backed No75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09d6…0fdabacked No80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805152.9%27 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c400$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5689617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes16c389.11$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6416225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No57c370$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.410150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x968b…549bbacked Yes54c367.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes32c351.4$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7258%2 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No50c351$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.4529653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked No76c341.02$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.2816743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8e6…3654backed No76c338.92$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes16c317.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0926616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes34c317.17$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10811136.9%41 W · 70 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c317.09$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3586542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4420…23c9backed No71c317$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29a…177dbacked Yes24c299.68$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c290.03$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.281,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes24c274.43$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.331719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No58c271.41$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.226743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes44c252.4$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.2745843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de4…e44ebacked No61c246.15$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.151546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf59…3cf1backed No61c234.51$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.46560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa486…25d4backed No50c227.15$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c7…85f7backed Yes7c214.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes42c209.54$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.638143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc18e…b090backed No69c206.25$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.853764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.2wins+0.20per pick45cpaid+58.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6650…71b6backed No48c206.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.212035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes8c201.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.948727.6%24 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x479d…4ecfbacked No50c200.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.521283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.2wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+47.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-52.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No53c194$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.885541.8%23 W · 32 L-7.9wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-35.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x24d6…58bcbacked Yes7c188.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…c072backed No42c188$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9c…f9bebacked No53c187.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11db…9831backed Yes31c185.91$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96da…68b6backed Yes15c183.49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-60.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf240…03c2backed No52c180.02$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.351145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd592…b119backed Yes56c175.27$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.883148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.