Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d30f1f27c99af0b7103919bc67ede91e5701a67b50085921ba77227de2539b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,131
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 3c | 11,002$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.13 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 26c | 9,240$2,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,446.3 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 79c | 8,905$7,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.38 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 69c | 4,376$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.29 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…287cbacked Yes | 34c | 2,907$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 73c | 2,340$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.56 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…9ba4backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,780$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed Yes | 4c | 1,477$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 73c | 1,448$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.36 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed No | 73c | 1,373$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.94 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 33c | 1,240$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.12 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 26c | 1,031$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.56 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 69c | 900$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcb…36f0backed Yes | 40c | 741.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…ad18backed Yes | 14c | 709.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed Yes | 29c | 679.58$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.69 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 69c | 661.69$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.49 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed Yes | 32c | 617.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 32c | 540$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.07 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 17c | 507$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 5c | 504$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…53dbbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 70c | 498$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.48 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 413.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7b…5a7cbacked No | 70c | 399.65$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…3b09backed Yes | 34c | 388.85$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8df…3bc5backed No | 70c | 372.08$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed No | 66c | 304.83$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.64 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 72c | 296.2$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 70c | 293.84$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.58 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 60c | 265$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 21c | 259.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 34c | 249.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 27c | 212.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e4…109fbacked Yes | 26c | 178.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 25c | 173.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…63ccbacked Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 42c | 167.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.1 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 214 | 26.2%56 W · 158 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 151.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5674…15c2backed No | 71c | 147.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 23c | 110.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 78c | 107.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…0b0dbacked No | 69c | 105$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed Yes | 26c | 98.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1375…14b0backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9076…8805backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0695…4accbacked No | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10f2…85f1backed Yes | 19c | 66.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 74c | 57.55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 30c | 57.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…3e65backed No | 70c | 56.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…0b93backed No | 66c | 53.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…086ebacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c2…12b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 76c | 43.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…af9bbacked No | 65c | 43.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 72c | 40.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…7e30backed No | 62c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce11…ad63backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 74c | 25.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…f15abacked No | 68c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa608…109cbacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 51cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…e1c6backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…a80fbacked No | 66c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by August 20?No won
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.