Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Yemen by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f507a2eada0844edc363d643b56fafaa5c6a142c5fef6b9f5fe26988273ca4d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,348,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,818,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,348,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdea…a777backed No | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…4b2dbacked No | 0c | 317,174$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…4e5abacked No | 0c | 111,420$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…12fabacked No | 0c | 86,975$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 0c | 79,375$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed No | 0c | 72,548$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…0a84backed No | 0c | 68,869$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed No | 0c | 66,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 56,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…bb51backed No | 0c | 56,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed No | 3c | 51,900$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.66 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239e…3ac6backed No | 0c | 50,773$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf5…a7fbbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…49acbacked No | 2c | 50,000$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 73c | 46,050$33,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,483.47 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 1c | 33,194$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,890.89 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdffb…93ecbacked No | 0c | 33,140$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…cb8abacked No | 0c | 32,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…145fbacked No | 0c | 31,115$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…753bbacked No | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed No | 0c | 30,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…c2efbacked No | 0c | 29,257$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…47b7backed No | 0c | 27,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 0c | 25,151$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 0c | 20,689$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…6302backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…b8f5backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf79…173bbacked No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…c31ebacked No | 0c | 20,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 1c | 19,270$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,143.29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +820.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb3…108ebacked No | 0c | 19,080$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a2…4c27backed No | 0c | 18,490$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fb…aaacbacked No | 0c | 17,737$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a68…22dfbacked No | 0c | 16,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3039…8a62backed No | 0c | 15,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked No | 0c | 14,833$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked No | 0c | 14,800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…22a9backed No | 0c | 13,748$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…81a4backed No | 0c | 13,510$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…0952backed No | 0c | 13,087$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 1c | 12,914$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,735.9 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7a…7a35backed No | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4fafbacked No | 0c | 12,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…b070backed No | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206e…096abacked No | 0c | 11,687$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7a…e98fbacked No | 0c | 11,410$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a02…1811backed No | 0c | 10,493$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9b…d46abacked No | 0c | 10,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab9…9d74backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78d…cd73backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffe…6d29backed No | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…ebd2backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…2b13backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…2665backed No | 0c | 9,813$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e4…0acbbacked No | 0c | 9,367$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed No | 0c | 9,333$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…9440backed No | 0c | 9,333$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…477cbacked No | 0c | 9,050$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2c7fbacked No | 69c | 8,989$6,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,158.33 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed Yes | 3c | 8,440$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,174.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…815dbacked No | 0c | 7,900$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…330bbacked No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…e63cbacked No | 0c | 7,475$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4a…c1f4backed No | 0c | 7,395$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…1839backed No | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked No | 0c | 6,523$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…7cacbacked Yes | 14c | 6,456$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,561.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +260.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…9c08backed No | 0c | 6,333$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…3bdebacked No | 0c | 6,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 36cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc47…be03backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…02b8backed No | 0c | 5,480$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…8778backed No | 0c | 5,250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…4902backed No | 0c | 5,230$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 77c | 5,046$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.59 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c47ebacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d8…dfebbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…b6b8backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ae…b724backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf794…72b8backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9829…41bebacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…9de3backed No | 0c | 5,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc783…f3ffbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…87bcbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…bcd6backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 10c | 4,985$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,492.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8a…d373backed No | 0c | 4,680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e3…0d69backed No | 0c | 4,573$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 0c | 4,369$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked No | 0c | 3,667$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 1c | 3,631$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 43c | 2,643$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.61 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c8…21cebacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,405$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.93 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 25c | 2,196$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.63 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Yes | 36c | 2,168$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.08 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Yemen by December 31?this page
- US strikes Yemen by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.