Middle East · resolved market
US strikes Yemen by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75315fb2833d270da22488d9d15803e5ac8d040c241e1553511856d303ca6a59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 48c | 23,691$11,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,448.09 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 7,525$2,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,382.37 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 70c | 6,462$4,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.05 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 62c | 5,845$3,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,619.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +820.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 66c | 5,624$3,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.96 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 73c | 4,550$3,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.42 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 5c | 2,195$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 72c | 2,134$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 13c | 2,004$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.32 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 16c | 1,857$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.61 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 30c | 1,820$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.71 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,730$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.21 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 1,586$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.06 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 18c | 1,500$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.91 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 59c | 1,476$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.64 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…a3f4backed No | 80c | 1,444$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc9…3192backed Yes | 9c | 1,399$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,370$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.35 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1141…55b1backed Yes | 6c | 1,359$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.76 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 11c | 1,342$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.76 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 37c | 1,316$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.38 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 54c | 1,316$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.53 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 1,294$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.73 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 29c | 1,290$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.85 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,274$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.88 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…a262backed Yes | 9c | 1,270$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…01f6backed Yes | 18c | 1,217$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…d092backed No | 65c | 1,193$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…8c68backed Yes | 11c | 1,058$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 10c | 988.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 30c | 988$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.58 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 29c | 741.35$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.89 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…e442backed Yes | 5c | 689.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 69c | 686.81$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.69 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 33c | 683.33$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.38 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 14c | 680.03$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed Yes | 9c | 658$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…0799backed No | 70c | 621.97$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.38 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 26c | 617.21$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 59c | 601.82$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 55c | 599$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.58 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes | 8c | 574.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 557.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 551.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2b…d2f2backed No | 50c | 529.64$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 9c | 525.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 66 | 3%2 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -95.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 17c | 503$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 61 | 18%11 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…9a12backed No | 35c | 500$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 458.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…50a4backed Yes | 7c | 450.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 448.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.63 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked No | 45c | 424.23$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d94…2ecdbacked No | 72c | 370.1$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 63c | 360.74$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.31 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.7wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 6c | 358.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…9544backed No | 59c | 350$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…cb71backed Yes | 51c | 348.83$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ab…daccbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 41c | 333$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.42 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed Yes | 61c | 327.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 9c | 315.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 311.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…6112backed No | 63c | 301.3$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.3 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…30c8backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…a5fdbacked Yes | 50c | 280.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 8c | 270.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed No | 58c | 270$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +205.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 26c | 261.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 19c | 257.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +110%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6540…ccc5backed No | 70c | 250$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4db1…7a85backed No | 50c | 247.27$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…7cc5backed No | 75c | 235.5$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked No | 69c | 225.35$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.75 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 30c | 225$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 40c | 222$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c16…45e9backed Yes | 14c | 221.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 65c | 216.3$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…5350backed No | 62c | 205.9$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…55b2backed Yes | 10c | 203.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f9…f200backed Yes | 58c | 201.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 194.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 36c | 187.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…0b12backed No | 57c | 176.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 38c | 176.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 47c | 175.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…6f89backed Yes | 11c | 172.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked Yes | 30c | 167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed No | 63c | 163.08$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 62c | 160.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3f28backed No | 63c | 157.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 146.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 33c | 140.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 66c | 140$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.77 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…8a0ebacked Yes | 36c | 138.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ff…d637backed No | 73c | 136.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked No | 74c | 135.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US strikes Yemen by September 30?this page
- US strikes Yemen by December 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.