TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

50% India tariff in effect by August 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15a9…6b43backed No1c8,750$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f94…380ebacked No68c6,690$4,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,549.320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc701…920ebacked Yes32c4,828$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,294.891233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c2,998$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.09490%0 W · 49 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x890c…bfe4backed No5c1,898$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6cc…f848backed Yes32c1,252$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.382152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c1,193$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.0799629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked No44c1,053$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.851346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e73…a236backed Yes71c1,041$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.493935.9%14 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x227d…b5a6backed No23c1,037$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…2dbcbacked No6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No11c999.98$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052650%13 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes30c999.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.7813943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x712f…b93bbacked No10c900$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No44c650$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28513714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked Yes65c613.21$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.642846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bec…7e15backed Yes34c606.29$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+98.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe781…5e52backed No37c550$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.53548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed Yes24c499.99$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3802075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae78…701cbacked Yes78c499.98$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No19c489.71$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.534843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No45c460.23$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8113216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa46…9536backed No35c431$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No22c421.14$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.2316544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No3c397.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.46150%0 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed Yes71c372.25$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.965552.7%29 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes40c366.99$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.639549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No3c352.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2614230.3%43 W · 99 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Yes40c350.56$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.097934.2%27 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e6…fa4cbacked No6c338.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…8a13backed No6c324.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No75c312.15$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.23154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed No52c306$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.682828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes66c299.99$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1028632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No36c255.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.583930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0454…859ebacked No17c255.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ef…5e6ebacked Yes40c251.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef85…f2b9backed Yes64c251.22$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.42966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+54.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82ee…d8e2backed No80c250.59$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9eff…d203backed No13c245$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No76c228$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.283043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d6…9aeabacked No66c210$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes20c200$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1607265.3%47 W · 25 L+8.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+20%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes25c199.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.363855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c198.02$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.681,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c189.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.491,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e78…e415backed Yes26c155$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1154216.7%7 W · 35 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-34.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa4ea…9b59backed No65c153.07$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No76c150$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes64c135.75$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.239557.9%55 W · 40 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xffd3…c80fbacked No11c133.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+117.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8044…68e3backed No38c130.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70d9…7c38backed Yes27c128.86$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.79520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb31…5025backed Yes40c120.54$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes21c112.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.61855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x338e…3267backed Yes37c102.7$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes78c100.01$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f85…ce10backed No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes53c94.12$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6212839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No71c92.31$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.548143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes62c90.51$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.394839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e09…0646backed Yes37c84.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked No62c82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.441947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1be…36acbacked No69c72.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17aa…d6bcbacked No76c70$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a29…bb12backed Yes38c70$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd8a…3082backed No78c67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No77c66.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ca…c084backed Yes36c64.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.615100%5 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+138.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x85d4…da9dbacked No64c64.06$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4140%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73e5…5bb5backed No70c63.49$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.651050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes25c63.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce9…9e9cbacked Yes77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.86250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca6…1211backed Yes43c57.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.76650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…825bbacked No18c54.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89fb…31efbacked No33c53.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7e…be17backed No66c51.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf454…7eccbacked Yes35c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.53644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No59c49.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No62c49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1622641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe409…aa26backed No24c48.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.76728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf373…6d8dbacked Yes40c45.29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+148.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x207b…a7a1backed No70c42.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb79…6400backed No37c40.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93da…558fbacked Yes68c39.75$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.721258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9c…fdf9backed No66c37.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cb…4dbcbacked No56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-72.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb1…2630backed Yes28c35.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+77.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524a…0441backed No60c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b75…b1a8backed Yes79c31.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.651040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa314…5ba7backed No65c26.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.157147.9%34 W · 37 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked No76c26.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204163.4%26 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-5.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No62c24.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.144459.1%26 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes60c22.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8418516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…009dbacked No63c21.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.911854.2%64 W · 54 L+10.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6143…938fbacked No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fd8…01f0backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-1.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5481…2841backed No69c18.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1017…0c39backed Yes65c17.09$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.