TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Yemen by September 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,970
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$181,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,970 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes13c15,676$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.272429.2%7 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes3c8,491$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.337025.7%18 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed No79c7,828$6,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.738552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes4c6,323$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No67c6,149$4,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,032.2264339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes20c5,728$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,135.2142818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ce8…662ebacked No71c5,569$3,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,642.653823.7%9 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes20c5,438$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.575812.1%7 W · 51 L-5.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-72%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes76c4,714$3,589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,589.031612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71dd…6b2ebacked Yes23c4,582$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes25c4,164$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.91931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa198…106abacked Yes27c4,000$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0702347.8%11 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No64c3,882$2,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.2112245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5119…e038backed Yes40c3,779$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.741154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.29per pick25cpaid+172.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes6c3,700$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2227142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes29c3,466$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.185813.8%8 W · 50 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-76.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes3c3,350$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7417931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cfa…478abacked Yes17c3,184$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+66%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No8c2,991$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,737.633151.6%16 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.38per pick14cpaid+350.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes6c2,978$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes5c2,375$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3829129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed No69c2,177$1,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.17751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6dc…3843backed Yes80c2,063$1,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,641.721181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick62cpaid+27.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe86…a4dfbacked Yes37c1,982$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes17c1,744$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.616118%11 W · 50 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes15c1,690$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.4260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes12c1,600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes13c1,546$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008721.8%19 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9665…206fbacked No79c1,406$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.59250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes19c1,366$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4914520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No25c1,354$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.699647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b94…951abacked Yes27c1,336$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.762528%7 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes15c1,333$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4843212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes8c1,267$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.795332.1%17 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f00…2b5bbacked Yes21c1,206$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacde…90b0backed No78c1,142$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c1,112$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fa…df8abacked Yes32c1,048$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3321729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No76c1,011$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.813746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed Yes34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3403732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2358…cd41backed Yes17c993$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.81944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe312…3b76backed No71c985.57$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+145.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5922…3388backed Yes5c982.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.161127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf58f…37a4backed Yes25c976.84$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.121353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.21per pick33cpaid+104.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes11c970.29$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7920823.1%48 W · 160 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28cf…02b9backed Yes19c950$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa71c…7fd3backed No79c943$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes5c934.64$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.261879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes14c907.47$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.15616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5446…fe65backed Yes29c876.13$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.821910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-71.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef5d…12e7backed Yes25c863.57$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.591723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes10c828.98$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes19c803.58$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.295328.3%15 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbfc2…98a6backed No59c790$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+81.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No59c789.13$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.729955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4bba…b571backed Yes39c773.28$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-57.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes24c724.99$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f52…00dabacked Yes31c688.15$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6088…8be7backed Yes32c680.87$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b6…f279backed No75c674.49$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.642369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No14c668.51$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.925330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xff30…2f90backed No71c667.5$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.856621.2%14 W · 52 L-7.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes29c656.93$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1816440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23cb…658ebacked Yes15c655.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.675743.9%25 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes36c610.03$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.864429.5%13 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes5c600.13$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.39244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes21c564.51$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes10c562$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.23920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc18f…605abacked Yes22c560$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.949920.2%20 W · 79 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes18c554.01$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6947334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaec2…cb66backed Yes12c550$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+104.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8833…2393backed No79c537.19$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.274654.3%25 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf13…690abacked No80c530$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.31346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc830…42cabacked Yes25c520$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No80c509.69$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.153036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x270c…f377backed Yes9c477$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.926541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked Yes10c417$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.72437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No79c376.39$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes14c373$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9413629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes21c362.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1117929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Yes39c350$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.131233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd151…2fd4backed Yes25c331.8$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.951154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.19per pick36cpaid+41.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No56c328.46$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.383762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac4…53c9backed Yes20c316.63$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d2c…17d2backed Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f4e…31cbbacked No79c288$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.76366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c23…9bffbacked Yes10c286.9$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22be…74b4backed Yes32c253$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.97633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c252.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38cb…2752backed No67c252.59$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c250.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.131,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes29c249.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32be…bac4backed Yes21c249.98$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.55952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9fd…829ebacked Yes39c249.08$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.56540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2526…32f6backed Yes29c247.88$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.82330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-45.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x509c…240abacked Yes24c245.39$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+71.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes23c244.56$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9789617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde53…27d2backed No76c236.44$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.44475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+207.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33e5…f4acbacked No79c233.23$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae50…1c9dbacked Yes26c232.18$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.73933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.