AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53484dd6096a847403e52892bbd8135b83ce2579e9223346942be9be263deea4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 43,110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked No | 26c | 11,273$2,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 9,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…c034backed No | 24c | 7,480$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3c…d074backed No | 1c | 7,019$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 6,788$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 11c | 5,381$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.7 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9538…83a6backed No | 13c | 5,210$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 80c | 4,826$3,845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.07 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…f2cdbacked No | 23c | 4,718$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 10c | 4,690$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.78 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…b25bbacked Yes | 74c | 3,948$2,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb015…5d68backed Yes | 54c | 3,866$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,784.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed No | 31c | 3,493$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f87…d197backed Yes | 61c | 3,253$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 65c | 3,112$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…e93fbacked No | 12c | 2,891$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 22c | 2,646$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.49 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 16c | 2,635$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.28 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 29c | 2,451$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.39 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…423cbacked No | 24c | 2,282$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed No | 27c | 2,014$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed No | 26c | 1,958$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.49 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…31a6backed No | 21c | 1,946$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.83 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed No | 11c | 1,926$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 64c | 1,847$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.77 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf714…74d6backed No | 29c | 1,751$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 22c | 1,726$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.34 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 80c | 1,698$1,357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.2 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes | 74c | 1,622$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.22 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed Yes | 68c | 1,584$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.73 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 69c | 1,546$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 22c | 1,535$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 1,532$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.2 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ace…9850backed No | 34c | 1,497$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…2ee3backed No | 34c | 1,483$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 35c | 1,396$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes | 74c | 1,342$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.47 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 74c | 1,326$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 15c | 1,263$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.76 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed No | 26c | 1,218$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 18c | 1,132$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.66 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 3c | 1,090$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 27c | 1,012$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 76c | 1,006$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.72 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 18c | 1,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 75c | 948.99$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 17c | 898.15$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.97 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 14c | 883.39$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.81 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…83d5backed Yes | 77c | 856.64$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9d…ab5ebacked No | 5c | 811.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fa…6e1fbacked No | 16c | 805.1$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…ba2abacked Yes | 77c | 799.99$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 13c | 792.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 787.36$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3814…588dbacked Yes | 75c | 777.36$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…7c14backed No | 37c | 749.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…03babacked Yes | 79c | 729.31$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe8…b7e4backed No | 28c | 722.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e5…8b97backed Yes | 74c | 708.77$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…7a93backed Yes | 69c | 700.22$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98f…6a3fbacked Yes | 78c | 681.27$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 75c | 658.69$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.07 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6167…dffebacked No | 22c | 646.23$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 18c | 623.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.93 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bc…00d7backed No | 22c | 616.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…9cabbacked Yes | 65c | 607.11$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9019…42e0backed Yes | 76c | 557.63$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5800…98bbbacked No | 14c | 553.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 520.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 23c | 501.38$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 65c | 499.7$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.49 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9596…245ebacked No | 16c | 490.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…f2a9backed No | 28c | 490.48$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 24c | 481.33$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…8d97backed Yes | 78c | 472.03$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed No | 23c | 470.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 48c | 420.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c5…b393backed Yes | 50c | 400.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…fe6bbacked Yes | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…a58ebacked No | 28c | 358.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked Yes | 55c | 355.23$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 8c | 350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f0…6c5dbacked No | 36c | 342.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…618fbacked Yes | 78c | 341.46$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb6…f162backed Yes | 76c | 318.48$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 56c | 318$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb2…cd2dbacked No | 3c | 315.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked No | 19c | 300.1$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…6667backed Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…cb78backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…5defbacked No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 80c | 281.27$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ef…1636backed No | 26c | 270.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1b…e450backed Yes | 72c | 269.16$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 19c | 264$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…63b2backed No | 10c | 261.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes | 59c | 247.43$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 12c | 244.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.