TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$256,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,967

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,459 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No0c43,110$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7124315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf68…3fdebacked No26c11,273$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c9,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.276291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2048…c034backed No24c7,480$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3c…d074backed No1c7,019$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No0c6,788$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9515615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No11c5,381$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.72560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9538…83a6backed No13c5,210$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+233.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes80c4,826$3,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.079041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ade…f2cdbacked No23c4,718$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-47%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No10c4,690$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.7810338.8%40 W · 63 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…b25bbacked Yes74c3,948$2,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.65333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb015…5d68backed Yes54c3,866$2,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8e…6a53backed No31c3,493$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.54742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f87…d197backed Yes61c3,253$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes65c3,112$2,037 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No12c2,891$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No22c2,646$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.492128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-56.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No16c2,635$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.282110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No29c2,451$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.3911030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7244…423cbacked No24c2,282$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed No27c2,014$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.492133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed No26c1,958$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.492913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6021…31a6backed No21c1,946$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.831020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f3…c2c2backed No11c1,926$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.312528%7 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ee…df72backed Yes64c1,847$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.771926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf714…74d6backed No29c1,751$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No22c1,726$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.3445738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes80c1,698$1,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.27951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x052c…5a0ebacked Yes74c1,622$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.221080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed Yes68c1,584$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.73742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+67.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes69c1,546$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.14875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No22c1,535$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-64.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No16c1,532$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.21,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ace…9850backed No34c1,497$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.271118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-64.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x59f7…2ee3backed No34c1,483$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked No35c1,396$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.971136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes74c1,342$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.47166.3%1 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick21cpaid-91.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes74c1,326$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.691747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No15c1,263$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.762128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x831b…eed5backed No26c1,218$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No18c1,132$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.663339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed No3c1,090$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.812025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed No27c1,012$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c1,006$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.7247938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed No18c1,000$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.511414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes75c948.99$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.691729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No17c898.15$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9728828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No14c883.39$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.816737.3%25 W · 42 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x106f…83d5backed Yes77c856.64$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.622142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a9d…ab5ebacked No5c811.09$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7fa…6e1fbacked No16c805.1$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe01b…ba2abacked Yes77c799.99$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-30.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No13c792.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8521125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes75c787.36$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.9825731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3814…588dbacked Yes75c777.36$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xceb5…7c14backed No37c749.98$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.79333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc8…03babacked Yes79c729.31$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe8…b7e4backed No28c722.48$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e5…8b97backed Yes74c708.77$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.41333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e25…7a93backed Yes69c700.22$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98f…6a3fbacked Yes78c681.27$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes75c658.69$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.0711549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6167…dffebacked No22c646.23$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.32560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes18c623.09$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.931872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+42.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8bc…00d7backed No22c616.44$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa403…9cabbacked Yes65c607.11$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9019…42e0backed Yes76c557.63$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5800…98bbbacked No14c553.25$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.06580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No16c520.96$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6840712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No23c501.38$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.492740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes65c499.7$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.494619.6%9 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-22.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9596…245ebacked No16c490.52$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.39540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40de…f2a9backed No28c490.48$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked No24c481.33$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.61933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28b4…8d97backed Yes78c472.03$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.91070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9aa…e347backed No23c470.94$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110190%0 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No48c420.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3c5…b393backed Yes50c400.27$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.27850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f1…fe6bbacked Yes79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea5…a58ebacked No28c358.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdfa…73fcbacked Yes55c355.23$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.231030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No8c350$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.54734%16 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f0…6c5dbacked No36c342.89$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5637…618fbacked Yes78c341.46$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebb6…f162backed Yes76c318.48$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.382245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes56c318$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccb2…cd2dbacked No3c315.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked No19c300.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.894934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.01922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bc2…6667backed Yes79c300$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-51.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920a…cb78backed No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x358e…5defbacked No20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes80c281.27$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.574050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ef…1636backed No26c270.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1b…e450backed Yes72c269.16$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.44966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No19c264$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.161428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68b5…63b2backed No10c261.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes59c247.43$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.091225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed No12c244.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.314610.9%5 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-66.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.