TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$202,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes15c10,716$1,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,572.96028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0588…9b80backed Yes5c8,270$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4301931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c6,603$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.3825528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5113…e446backed No77c5,065$3,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.062450%12 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes18c4,549$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.234358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No65c3,850$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.52475%18 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c6d…8371backed No61c3,402$2,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.544100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7054…404abacked Yes3c3,174$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes38c2,993$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,150.2429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc481…471fbacked No51c2,794$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.31428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-54.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes19c2,779$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.8526238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes25c2,773$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.8925311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x813a…acb1backed Yes64c2,722$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,746.383016.7%5 W · 25 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No65c2,530$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.2914355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes25c2,505$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.643815.8%6 W · 32 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No70c2,352$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.483743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes16c2,318$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.4835341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x72c7…6378backed Yes52c2,299$1,188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,187.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked No58c1,881$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.5515029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes34c1,823$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.996317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes25c1,812$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.225742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe893…f2c0backed No30c1,714$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf00a…c77cbacked No53c1,614$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.533863.2%24 W · 14 L+5.8wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+28.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes52c1,518$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.184841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed Yes53c1,514$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.278549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c1,470$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.755810.3%6 W · 52 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes40c1,450$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.462015%3 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-73.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x53cb…fc91backed No42c1,300$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.911118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8247…714dbacked Yes42c1,292$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.51922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick47cpaid-71.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked Yes21c1,244$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.449962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes14c1,200$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1747356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3769…2799backed Yes16c1,176$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd922…310fbacked Yes7c1,147$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c1,102$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98fa…d698backed No75c1,091$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed Yes45c974.82$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.72231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-43.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes9c974.53$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0914121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68f9…d046backed No54c958.51$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed Yes26c946.3$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.095438.9%21 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…2dbcbacked Yes21c934.74$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.61020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ee…2dd6backed Yes8c920.22$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.33475%3 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick25cpaid+159.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes4c919.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.046540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes20c917$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.625123.5%12 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde18…7a7bbacked Yes56c885.7$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+107.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e54…5f61backed No75c877.66$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.08683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick76cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes49c801.28$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.179734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda00…74a2backed Yes18c800$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes23c777.57$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.9911322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed No73c744.27$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.6913429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d4…886ebacked Yes7c682.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5651…66a6backed No71c679.26$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.561637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No78c673.11$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.0130837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Yes45c666.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes36c653.45$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a6d…1e7cbacked No54c622.61$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0386…5e02backed Yes52c611.14$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32080%0 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No61c598.8$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.796159%36 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cc2…5003backed Yes56c595.28$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.591752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96da…68b6backed No36c595.16$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.661662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+60.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd6…16f8backed Yes24c592.62$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.741127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No60c585.44$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.86850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+101.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49dc…9830backed Yes20c546.02$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc54…5fc1backed Yes7c544.88$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4535…d7a1backed No76c536.75$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.07862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes6c510$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.84185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-72.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No70c504.6$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.585479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9111…b68abacked Yes18c499.99$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No80c482.19$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.351770.6%12 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick67cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02f1…bc37backed Yes23c476.44$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.25475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+73.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd233…b493backed Yes16c469.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes12c462.31$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.082157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c449.47$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4420026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes14c426.33$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5621426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c421.08$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4726318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes25c420$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.96639.4%26 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes13c412.27$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.65119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes7c383.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.571910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No60c350$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.227247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Yes20c334.68$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.327843.6%34 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes48c330.44$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3714147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes21c318.88$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2914750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes26c312.31$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2410357.3%59 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes22c310$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.28045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3762…7ff4backed No73c306.2$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.575464.8%35 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a5…5facbacked No65c299.4$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No74c280$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.89115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa59a…dd69backed Yes69c274.3$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.551758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x741d…e35cbacked Yes18c271.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e2c…30f6backed Yes21c254$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6833…751abacked Yes18c254$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x203b…6f16backed No65c250$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-69.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed Yes28c235.72$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.731921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3868…6ba8backed Yes26c221.52$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.642123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-55%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b5a…41cbbacked No71c215$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c211.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.28565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes19c210.15$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6217122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98f2…c545backed Yes14c207$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dae…2df5backed Yes15c205$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.