Ukraine · resolved market
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1c2988f77b26eaf843db40f9c89c1a1f8e62007d490ee4733f3906e6cef93c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gazaof Gaza, Ukraine
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa99c…3070backed Ukraine | 13c | 9,788$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Gaza | 79c | 4,772$3,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.86 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Ukraine | 4c | 4,356$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.87 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Ukraine | 37c | 3,584$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,315.19 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Gaza | 80c | 2,804$2,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.11 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Ukraine | 23c | 2,610$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Gaza | 68c | 2,222$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Gaza | 70c | 2,141$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.05 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Gaza | 67c | 2,007$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.48 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…ed32backed Ukraine | 45c | 2,000$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.87 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Ukraine | 38c | 1,928$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.35 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Ukraine | 12c | 1,750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Gaza | 56c | 1,309$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.81 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Ukraine | 17c | 1,194$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.66 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Ukraine | 38c | 1,191$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.26 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…8f8bbacked Gaza | 65c | 1,071$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Gaza | 71c | 912.89$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.05 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Gaza | 65c | 900.77$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.25 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…8632backed Ukraine | 28c | 880.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Gaza | 60c | 831.94$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.65 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Ukraine | 33c | 798.51$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.51 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Ukraine | 44c | 789.17$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.23 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Gaza | 57c | 787.57$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.66 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked Gaza | 64c | 777.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Ukraine | 13c | 699.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Gaza | 79c | 654.89$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.12 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…4c0cbacked Gaza | 77c | 645.22$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0db…56d5backed Gaza | 80c | 627.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Ukraine | 26c | 610.41$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.14 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Gaza | 56c | 593.23$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.02 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked Gaza | 56c | 570.53$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Gaza | 53c | 531$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.27 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ukraine | 19c | 519.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.77 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Gaza | 71c | 500$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…79a6backed Gaza | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…d6ecbacked Ukraine | 43c | 470$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Gaza | 74c | 419.67$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Gaza | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Ukraine | 44c | 370.34$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.75 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Gaza | 74c | 365.25$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Gaza | 72c | 348.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +285.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067b…fb69backed Ukraine | 36c | 347.22$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Gaza | 59c | 340.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.76 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Ukraine | 16c | 335.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Gaza | 80c | 332.59$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…0473backed Ukraine | 32c | 320$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed Gaza | 78c | 311.44$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Gaza | 60c | 307.33$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.48 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Gaza | 67c | 299.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Gaza | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Ukraine | 36c | 290.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…b1a8backed Gaza | 71c | 284.49$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.71 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Ukraine | 34c | 269.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Ukraine | 22c | 259.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Ukraine | 37c | 259.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ukraine | 16c | 254.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…f261backed Gaza | 65c | 240$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Gaza | 65c | 232.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0719…fbb9backed Ukraine | 43c | 230$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…a7a2backed Ukraine | 34c | 228.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Gaza | 54c | 226.51$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Gaza | 68c | 221.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.12 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Gaza | 74c | 205.29$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Gaza | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Ukraine | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Ukraine | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d18…6137backed Ukraine | 39c | 180.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed Gaza | 56c | 179$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Ukraine | 39c | 175$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Gaza | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…c183backed Ukraine | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e6…cd39backed Gaza | 58c | 171.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd480…4377backed Gaza | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed Gaza | 78c | 154.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…a4a3backed Gaza | 65c | 152.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3bc…543ebacked Ukraine | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Gaza | 66c | 150.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Ukraine | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052c…5a0ebacked Gaza | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 63cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf55…ba75backed Gaza | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…7f93backed Gaza | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Ukraine | 39c | 147$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Gaza | 68c | 134.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…3cadbacked Gaza | 75c | 132.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f7…1c49backed Ukraine | 38c | 131.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc924…567abacked Ukraine | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked Ukraine | 39c | 129.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…2da6backed Gaza | 78c | 128.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…0a6ebacked Gaza | 78c | 127.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf141…d9aabacked Gaza | 79c | 126.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Ukraine | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Ukraine | 35c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…f9ebbacked Gaza | 53c | 120$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Gaza | 76c | 116.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Gaza | 66c | 111$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -4.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Gaza | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Gaza | 70c | 102$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Gaza | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Gaza | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed Gaza | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.