TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes3c15,012$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.152119%4 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-59%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c10,766$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.78905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes20c5,696$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,141.4826238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes3c5,409$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.956933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes7c5,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.91526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-58.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes10c4,207$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4317356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes3c4,195$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5125311.5%29 W · 224 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No53c3,302$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.791872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes12c2,651$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.583342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes7c2,548$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.989115.4%14 W · 77 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-71.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c2,487$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.813910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes19c2,412$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.42157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x83a2…9452backed Yes28c2,351$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.282744.4%12 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1141…55b1backed Yes3c2,296$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.582326.1%6 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No79c2,236$1,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.035632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes21c2,088$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.554443.2%19 W · 25 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes44c2,063$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.413933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1cc…e2ebbacked Yes5c2,023$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes12c1,928$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.771315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes28c1,633$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.669734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6d…8371backed No69c1,538$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.024100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,397$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.515327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…3f88backed No73c1,167$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.461833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b92…42e6backed Yes8c1,121$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.044511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbde…01c3backed Yes5c1,102$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.42520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes59c1,089$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.1412927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes21c1,045$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.6114121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes22c1,001$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.8411530.4%35 W · 80 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes15c1,001$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.614555.6%25 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d34…de7ebacked Yes12c999.96$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes6c958.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.872259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes9c918.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.68641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No71c915.94$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.884852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…57e5backed Yes43c915.91$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.0460%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No74c911.28$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.283622.2%8 W · 28 L-8.1wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-63.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x50e6…2e57backed No78c885$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes9c844.33$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.624022.5%9 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c836.89$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3939429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes14c816.31$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0135341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes2c779.59$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.19518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes13c770$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.11618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes8c740$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.53727%10 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86ba…7b5ebacked No68c735.29$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf00…6767backed Yes7c735.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50219.5%2 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes35c570$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006420.3%13 W · 51 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes65c529.93$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.924258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c00…0788backed Yes4c529.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.54140%0 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No40c499$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.45949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Yes2c460$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.041154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0303…fcd1backed No67c451.67$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.411643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c444.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3830837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c420.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.73565.4%3 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked No66c420$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.976317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c21…a532backed Yes3c401.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed Yes4c400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed Yes15c390$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.81921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed No37c385.91$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.912055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes30c333.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.21560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e21…9e58backed No66c301.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.692157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed Yes22c294$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.951861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c288.47$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0815…d0ddbacked No64c250$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+52.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e7…fc5bbacked Yes62c250$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No71c248.27$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.0721426.2%56 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x069f…b749backed Yes28c242.49$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.762744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4083…363fbacked Yes56c240$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1343644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes8c238.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes49c226.13$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4110137.6%38 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No51c225.86$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6114355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b87…e76dbacked No45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes52c222$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes7c221.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.074928.6%14 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf950…81d1backed No41c212$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.711631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8069…6963backed No48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes55c204.37$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.734551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed Yes65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1303652.8%19 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7285…c116backed Yes32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005d…850abacked Yes13c192.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c191.39$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6126318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f25…b14cbacked Yes22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.244643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6233…cefdbacked Yes34c165.14$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-43.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x588c…1bf4backed No77c163$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.493762.2%23 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19c3…b4d2backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31b3…96ffbacked Yes53c139.25$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6323…17babacked Yes61c135.11$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.55757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes42c134.15$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.869326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No38c131.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5814147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes23c120.6$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1920026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked No37c118.11$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.072321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No35c110$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.82540%10 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No39c110$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.64953.1%26 W · 23 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked No23c104.02$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.252669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+25.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x65e4…2420backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91b2…fcc2backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked Yes61c91.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.992138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa6f…7e67backed No72c91.33$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.655479.6%43 W · 11 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.